China's 1# refined copper spot price stood at Yuan 95,649/tonne on March 31, rising by Yuan 571/tonne compared with the previous trading day, according to Mysteel's assessment. Specifically, spot prices in Shanghai ranged between Yuan 95,380-95,840/tonne, averaging at Yuan 95,580/tonne. The 1# refined copper average spot premium in Shanghai was Yuan -60/tonne, rising by Yuan 5/tonne day on day. Recent expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East led to a modest rebound in copper prices.
China's refined copper market saw relatively weak activity on March 31, as the end of the month and quarter added enterprises' financial pressures. Mysteel's survey covering 56 refined copper trading enterprises (including traders, smelters, and downstream fabricators) in China indicated that the daily spot transaction volume totaled 21,700 tonnes on March 31, dropping by 5,300 tonnes or 19.75% day on day. Looking ahead, with the Qingming Festival holiday (April 4-6) approaching, downstream enterprises are expected to start pre-holiday stockpiling, potentially boosting market trading activity this week.
China's copper semis market operated relatively steadily on March 31, with downstream enterprises primarily conducting demand-driven procurement. Mysteel's 31 Chinese copper rod sample manufacturers with a total annual capacity of 6.01 million tonnes and 6 sample traders reported that order volumes decreased by 317 tonnes or 3.29% day on day, reaching 9,323 tonnes on March 31, with refined copper rod transactions growing by 173 tonnes or 2.36% to 7,495 tonnes, but secondary decreasing by 490 tonnes or 21.14% to 1,828 tonnes. The secondary copper rod market remained affected by raw material industry tax policies, with market sentiment staying subdued. Refined copper rod and copper tube enterprises focused on steady delivery of long-term contracts, while copper plate/strip companies mainly fulfilled existing orders, showing limited enthusiasm for new orders. The copper bar market was supported by essential downstream demand, though a strong near-term demand recovery may remain limited.
Moving forward, ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to continue driving significant volatility in copper prices. However, recent improvements in China's copper market fundamentals, marked by sustained inventory declines and a rebound in demand supported by lower prices and peak-season expectations, will support copper prices on the downside. Close attention should be paid to developments in the Middle East conflict and expectations regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
Edited by Ruolan Chen, chenruolan@mysteel.com
