On April 29, copper prices declined slightly in futures and spot markets, with China's refined copper spot premiums rising in major markets, reflecting relatively tight available spot supply toward the month-end. Meanwhile, refined copper trading increased in China, as downstream enterprises stockpiled before the Labor Day holiday (May 1-5).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its decision to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, on Wednesday, April 29 (local time). This marks the third consecutive decision with no change in interest rates, aligning with market expectations. The market has begun to price in a low probability of a Fed rate cut in 2026, and the U.S. dollar index moved higher, suppressing copper prices.
China's copper semis transactions stayed relatively weak on April 29, remaining largely supported by rigid demand. According to Mysteel's survey, copper semis producers' pre-holiday stockpiling was generally mediocre, due to high raw material prices, weak demand expectations, and market invoice policy adjustments. Looking ahead to May, consumption from end-use sectors may remain mixed, with sectors such as new energy and grid likely seeing steady performance, while air conditioner and real estate markets may remain sluggish. Overall, rigid demand is expected to support copper prices in China.
Moving forward, most of China's copper semis producers will maintain production during the Labor Day holiday, despite adjusted operating rates. Consequently, post-holiday inventory digestion and copper price trends need close attention.
