China's soybean meal prices likely to hit floor with quicker soybean clearance

As soybean clearance times at major coastal ports in both southern and northern China have generally shortened, the supply shortage that previously constrained crushers' operations is rapidly easing. Crushing volumes are picking up, and the market has largely priced in expectations of rising supply.

Against this backdrop, spot soybean meal prices have continued to fall, with basis turning deeply negative, and futures prices are moving lower, signaling that soybean meal prices have entered a comprehensive bottom-finding phase.

Over the past month, extended soybean clearance times led to temporary bean shortages and plant shutdowns, briefly creating spot supply tightness of soybean meal. In many regions, soybean meal pick-up truck queuing times reached 3-4 days, with longer soybean clearance cycles providing key support for meal prices.

For example, last month, soybean clearance in Shandong took 20-25 days on average, forcing several Rizhao-based crushers to halt production due to bean supply disruptions. This situation is now rapidly reversing.

Shandong led the turnaround by reducing clearance times to 10-15 days, which prompted local crushers to cancel their previously scheduled shutdowns, and other coastal regions have followed suit. Clearance times have dropped from 20-25 days to 13-18 days in the Northeast, from 20 days to 10-14 days in North China, from 21 days to 14 days in East China, and from 25 days to 15 days in South China. Overall, coastal clearance times have shortened by 7-10 days.

Notably, no official directive has been issued. These adjustments are mainly driven by the concentrated arrivals of South American beans, port storage pressure, and the risk of bean spoilage due to hot weather, all of which have prompted ports to accelerate unloading and transshipment. After discharge, the soybeans are now sent directly to plants for inspection. In short, bottlenecks in the import process are gradually being resolved, and transport efficiency from ports to plants has improved significantly.

Seasonally, May-August will usually see the soybean meal stock accumulation in China, driven by concentrated South American soybean arrivals and subsequent crush increases. In 2026, due to earlier clearance delays, soybean meal stock building has started later than usual, but the trend is unchanged.

Moreover, meal inventories bottomed at 291,300 tonnes end the week of May 15, much higher than last year's low of 74,800 tonnes on April 25, 2026. According to a Mysteel's survey of major crushers, soybean arrivals in June 2026 are estimated at 165.2 vessels, totaling approximately 10.738 million tonnes (based on 65,000 tonnes per vessel).

Preliminary estimates for July and August are 11 million tonnes and 10.5 million tonnes, respectively, with June crush volume forecast at 9.8977 million tonnes. Facing monthly arrivals and crush volumes of around 10 million tonnes, crushers will gradually enter a soybean meal inventory accumulation and pressing to pick up phase.

In the short term, the Dce M2609 contract is likely to trade in the range of Yuan 2,950-3,050/tonne. Attention should focus on U.S. soybean weather conditions and global macroeconomic developments. Fundamentals, including favorable U.S. soybean planting progress, sufficient South American soybean supply, and domestic soybean meal supply-demand dynamics, offer no clear bullish cues. However, low prices are improving meal's cost competitiveness and should support demand, limiting further downside. Spot prices are expected to find strong support in the Yuan 2,750-2,800 /tonne range. The long-term basis is likely to fluctuate around Yuan -200/tonne.