China's copper concentrate port inventories are plunging to historic lows, signaling a shift in the global supply landscape from a tight balance to a structural deficit. According to the latest data from Mysteel, total stocks across major Chinese ports have plummeted by nearly 200,000 tonnes since mid-May 2025, while overseas shipments and arrivals in China have declined sharply in tandem. This trend is primarily driven by the dual pressures of declining ore grades at legacy mines and widespread delays in new project ramp-ups.
In the short term, the negative feedback loop between low inventories and rigid offtake demand is difficult to break, leaving limited room for inventory buildup. Securing raw material supply has thus become the core contradiction facing the industry chain.
Current status
Copper concentrate inventories at Chinese ports have remained persistently low, resonating with a sharp drop in port arrivals, which confirms that global supply has tightened substantially.
Mysteel's data shows that as of early June 2026, total inventories across 16 major Chinese ports fell steadily from 1.003 million tonnes in mid-May 2025 to 804,000 tonnes, a cumulative drop of 199,000 tonnes. From January to April 2026, import replenishments were significantly insufficient, with national arrivals totaling only 7.652 million tonnes, down 15.4% year-on-year, with the downtrend affecting all major consumption regions.
This situation reflects verified global supply contraction. As key exporting countries, Chile's shipments reached just 4.284 million tonnes (down 10.8% YoY), while Peru's shipments stood at 2.864 million tonnes (down 11.5% YoY). Over the same period, total global copper concentrate shipments amounted to merely 10.361 million tonnes, marking a 16.6% year-on-year decline.
Reasons behind
Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, saw its March output fall 15.75% year-on-year to 101,600 tonnes, primarily due to a plunge in mill feed grade from 1.05% to 0.91% over the same period last year. Zambia's Kansanshi mine experienced a 4.25% production drop in Q1 2026 due to lower ore grades. Chile's Collahuasi has recorded five consecutive years of declining output, driven mainly by falling ore grades and inadequate water supply for processing plants, leading to continuously deteriorating copper recovery rates.
Elsewhere, the Phase II expansion of the Mirador copper mine under Tongling Nonferrous has been postponed due to political instability and presidential elections in Ecuador. In early 2026, Barrick Gold announced that development of the Reko Diq project would be delayed until mid-2027 or later amid heightened security risks in the Middle East. Peru's La Granja project has been pushed back beyond 2030 due to community protests and water rights disputes. The U.S. based Resolution Copper project (annual capacity ~450,000 tonnes), despite 26 years of development and over USD 2 billion invested per year, remains mired in tribal litigation and environmental injunctions.
On the other hand, China, as the world's largest refined copper producer, has seen robust growth in smelting capacity over the past few years, with new raw ore smelting capacity of 1.1 million tonnes in 2023, 950,000 tonnes in 2024, 600,000 tonnes in 2025, and an estimated 800,000 tonnes in 2026.
In summary, persistently low inventories have reinforced sellers' reluctance to part with material, which may further depress treatment charges. A negative feedback loop has formed between depressed treatment terms and depleted port stocks. Pressure on raw material security is mounting, with some smelters, particularly those with low coverage under long-term contracts, already facing passive production cuts or reduced operating loads.
However, supported by firm sulfuric acid prices, overall smelting demand remains intact, sustaining consumption of copper concentrate. Against this backdrop, imported cargoes are being lifted rapidly upon arrival, leaving little room for any meaningful rebound in port inventories.
written by Regina WANG
wangjiaqie@mysteel.com
