Amid conflicting bullish and bearish factors, Chinese tin prices in June are expected to fluctuate at elevated levels within a range of Yuan 380,000/tonne-Yuan 460,000/tonne.
From a macro perspective, expectations of loose domestic monetary liquidity in China, backed by policy support, should be favourable for tin prices. However, overseas geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain the largest sources of disturbance. The unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict is keeping inflation elevated, and with the U.S. labour market proving resilient, market bets on Fed rate cuts are steadily fading while rate hike expectations are building, which is likely to weigh on tin prices.
On the supply side, Myanmar enters the rainy season in June, which may disrupt tin ore mining and transportation. Stricter explosives controls following the earlier explosion could also slow mining progress. Consequently, China's tin ore imports from Myanmar are expected to be limited to around 1,300 metal tonnes. In contrast, export license approvals in Indonesia may accelerate in June, allowing refined tin shipments to recover and support China's supply. In China, the tightness in smelters' tin ore feedstock is expected to persist, with small plants likely to see slow production and little improvement in operating rates. Overall, a tightening in China's tin market supply in June should provide some support for prices.
On the demand side, PV solder consumption is unlikely to see a significant improvement in June. Mysteel forecasts PV module output at 30-33 GW, staying relatively weak. At the same time, high prices are expected to intensify cost pressures on module makers, keeping them cautious in raw material procurement. In home appliances and consumer electronics sectors, order volumes are likely to see only limited improvement in June. The appliance sector is expected to remain under pressure from weak exports demand, while elevated inventories in consumer electronics will discourage raw material restocking. By contrast, AI server orders are relatively ample, and strong production growth in advanced packaging and high-end PCBs is expected to drive tin consumption. Overall, end-use demand for tin ingots in June is likely to be structurally divergent, with spot trading unlikely to improve markedly, thus offering limited support to tin prices.
In summary, macro factors in June are expected to be supportive in China but restrictive overseas. Combined with fundamental supply-side support and relatively weak demand, tin prices are forecast to remain at high levels, fluctuating mainly between Yuan 380,000/tonne and Yuan 460,000/tonne in June.
Written by Zhaorui Cui, cuizhaorui@mysteel.com
Edited by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
