In July, as macro headwinds ease and fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, China's tin prices are likely to fluctuate with an upward bias, but the upside will be capped by limited consumption gains. Prices are therefore forecast to trade between Yuan 380,000-440,000/tonne.
From a macro perspective, weaker-than-expected U.S. labour data is expected to slow market expectations for Fed rate hikes this year, leading to a gradual decline in the U.S. dollar index, which should support tin prices.
On the supply side, the rainy season in Myanmar will gradually end in late July, likely accelerating tin ore shipments from the region. Raw material supply to domestic smelters should see marginal improvement, and operating rates are likely to recover. Regarding tin ingots, as export licence approvals in Indonesia are completed, tin ingot exports are set to rise. Meanwhile, the opening of China's import window is expected to bring a moderate increase in tin ingot arrivals. Overall, tin supply tightness is expected to ease somewhat in July, but the improvement will be limited, maintaining underlying price support.
On the demand side, PV module production in July is expected to stay around 36 GW, with manufacturers gradually restocking tin ingot. In the home appliances sector, rising summer temperatures globally may spur overseas purchases of air conditioners, potentially boosting China's appliance exports and supporting tin demand. Regarding consumer electronics, raw material tin restocking ahead of new product launches is expected to grow. Meanwhile, AI and semiconductor sectors are projected to maintain high production levels, ensuring robust tin demand. Overall, tin ingot demand in July is expected to improve month on month, supported by a marginal recovery in traditional markets and continued strong growth in emerging sectors. However, caution is needed as high prices may dampen downstream purchasing appetite.
In summary, with easing macro headwinds, sustained supply-side support and marginally improving demand, tin prices in July are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, trading within Yuan 380,000-440,000/tonne.
Written by Zhaorui Cui, cuizhaorui@mysteel.com
Edited by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
