The lithium carbonate futures price experienced a breif rally after the previous down cycle, with the fundamentals staying firm still and market gradually digesting the news of Jianxiawo's potential restart. Downstream buying sentiment remained cautious, with procurement activity relatively slow in the first half of July. However, spot lithium carbonate inventories remained low, and the basis strengthened modestly.
Currently, the market views on the scale and sustainability of destocking in the second half remain divided, weighing on valuations. Demand and destocking pace in forward months have yet to be confirmed, and near-term upside catalysts are lacking. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether Zimbabwea's lithium ore arrivals provide flexibility to lithium salt supply, the realization of demand growth, and any strengthening of the spot basis. Prices are expected to remain rangebound.
