The lithium carbonate futures price recorded another losing day. On the fundamentals, frequent maintenance shutdowns at lithium converters in July and August, combined with strong demand, are expected to drive a significant drawdown in lithium carbonate inventories in the third quarter. However, market sentiment toward the sustainability of future demand remained pessimistic, with concerns that supply growth driven by elevated valuations will outpace demand growth. Whether spot tightness will emerge before future inventory builds remains to be seen.
Mysteel's lastest survey based on our new survey sample comprising 207 market players indicated continued inventory drawdown, suggesting relatively tight fundamentals at the current stage. Yet, lithium concentrate supply ramp-up remained smooth Australia, while material growth is not expected until Q4 2026. Overall, with the tug-of-war between firm fundamentals and future supply growth in place, the lithium carbonate prices will likely keep rangebound.
