Mysteel's clean copper concentrate spot treatment charge (TC) index stood at -$172.92/dmt as of August 7, down by $13.25/dmt week on week.
According to market sources on August 6, the DRC government signed an inter-ministerial decree on June 29 banning the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, with the measure taking effect immediately. However, projects meeting strategic criteria may apply for export exemptions of up to one year. Notably, the ban came at a time when the global copper concentrate market is already facing severe supply constraints. Although the market had already widely anticipated a reduction in DRC concentrate exports following the commissioning of the KAMOA copper smelting project at the end of 2025, the export ban may further exacerbate the situation. Moving forward, TCs are expected to continue falling due to persistent supply concerns.
Source: Mysteel
Spot market activity remained relatively active last week, with more fixed TC transactions concluded. Divergences between buyers and sellers persisted, as smelters showed a stronger preference for fixed-price deals, while traders generally favored index-based pricing. According to Mysteel's survey, a trader sold 10,000 tonnes of clean copper concentrate for August-September shipment to a smelter at a fixed TC of -$183/dmt last week. Another trader sold 20,000 tonnes of bundled concentrate to a smelter at a fixed TC of -$174/dmt to -$175/dmt.
China's average 98% smelting sulfuric acid price stood at Yuan 1,699/tonne on August 7, falling from Yuan 1,748/tonne on July 31, but stayed at relatively elevated levels, continuing complementing copper smelters' losses due to excessively low TCs.
China's domestic sulfuric acid market is expected to show regional divergence this week, with the overall price center likely to continue trending lower. On the cost side, sulfur prices are expected to remain volatile at elevated levels, supported by relatively tight spot availability. Meanwhile, firm prices for pyrite, copper, lead and zinc ores will continue to support sulfuric acid prices. On the supply side, domestic sulfuric acid output is expected to recover slightly this week as some previously idled facilities resume operations. However, regional supply dynamics will remain uneven. Hubei and East China may face greater supply pressure, while output growth in Inner Mongolia and Gansu is expected to remain limited due to raw material constraints and operating restrictions. Demand performance is also expected to vary across sectors. The phosphate fertilizer market may improve slightly as preparations for autumn fertilizer demand advance, providing some support to sulfuric acid consumption. However, demand from downstream chemical sectors, including titanium dioxide and dicalcium phosphate, will remain weak. The new energy sector will continue to show relatively stable procurement, but overall sulfuric acid demand is still expected to trend slightly downward. In addition, continued declines in sulfuric acid prices have encouraged some buyers to delay restocking in anticipation of further price cuts.
Overall, high production costs and weak demand remain the key factors shaping the market, while recovering supply is adding pressure in some regions. Consequently, China's sulfuric acid prices are expected to see further downside this week, although the decline is likely to be limited by rigid cost support.
Source: Mysteel
With supply gradually recovering, demand showing limited improvement, and market confidence remaining weak, sulfuric acid prices are likely to face further downward pressure in China, while the price spread between sulfur-based sulfuric acid and smelting acid is expected to continue widening. Sulfur-based acid producers continue to face persistently high sulfur costs, leading to sustained losses and proactive production cuts, with prices likely to remain elevated. In contrast, smelting acid, as a by-product of copper and other metal smelting, generates substantial margins and provides a vital profit supplement for smelters amid persistently low TC levels. However, with smelters that had previously undergone maintenance gradually resuming normal production, smelting acid supply has been recovering. Yet downstream demand remains insufficient, causing prices to decline more sharply than those of sulfur-based acid.
Overall, caution is warranted over sharp price declines later on, which could further reduce the profit supplementation for copper smelting and impact output.
Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
