China's total copper semis output decreased by 2.56% month on month to 1.6096 million tonnes in July, according to Mysteel's survey on 63 refined copper rod, 77 secondary copper rod, 59 copper plate/strip, 57 copper foil, 43 copper tube, and 64 copper bar manufacturers. Mysteel's survey projects China's copper semis output in August 2026 to decreased to 1.5815 million tonnes.
The comprehensive capacity utilization rate decreased slightly by 1.43 percentage points to 54.16% in July, with rates of 64.38%, 14.32%, 68.8%, 82.89%, 67.78% and 50.81%, respectively, for refined copper rod, secondary copper rod, copper plate/strip, copper foil, copper tube, and copper bar enterprises.
In July, copper semis output at companies surveyed by Mysteel declined further, with secondary copper rod and copper tube posting large month-on-month drops of 12.57% and 5.98%, respectively. Tight raw material supply kept most small and medium-sized secondary rod producers running at low operating rates, while the off-season for air conditioner production reduced orders and thus output at copper tube plants. With end-user demand in the traditional off-season, limited orders also caused month-on-month declines in other copper semis production. As a result, China's copper semis output fell further in July.
Data source: Mysteel
Regarding imports and exports, China's copper semis imports amounted to 72,194 tonnes in June 2026, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.83%. The top four suppliers were Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, China, and South Korea, accounting for 13.61%, 12.16%, 11.22%, and 10.77% of total imports, respectively. During the same period, China's copper semis exports reached 105,910 tonnes, registering a year-on-year increase of 40.56%. Among these, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and South Korea were the top four destinations, with export volumes accounting for 10.88%, 10.03%, 8.03% and 7.66% of the total, respectively.
China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.2 in July, down by 1.1 points month on month and fell into contraction territory, indicating a cooling of China's manufacturing activity. The new orders index dropped by 2.7 points month on month, with some sectors affected by the off-season for consumption, slowing the growth in end-user orders. The new export orders index also fell from 50.1 in June to 49.6 in July, pointing to softer external demand. Meanwhile, the backlog of orders contracted further from 47.1 in June to 45.8 in July. Overall, input purchase prices remained high, while ex-factory prices struggled to rise amid slower destocking of finished goods and limited growth in new orders. As a result, shrinking profits dampened companies' willingness to produce and purchase raw materials.
Looking ahead, August remains in China's demand off-season, so orders received by downstream processors are unlikely to improve notably, constraining both copper semis output and copper consumption. At the same time, tight raw material supply will provide a floor for copper prices, making a sharp price decline unlikely. As a result, downstream players will remain reluctant to build inventory proactively. Therefore, copper semis output and copper consumption in China are expected to keep trending lower in August.
In the second half of 2026, copper semis output and refined copper consumption are expected to increase compared with the first half. On one hand, products such as refined copper rod and copper foil are likely to drive refined copper demand, supported by rigid end-user needs and the development of emerging industries. Additionally, the raw material shortfall in secondary copper semis will continue to be filled by refined copper, and with the refined-scrap copper price spread potentially narrowing, end-users may become increasingly favorable of refined copper. On the other hand, should copper prices undergo a temporary pullback, pent-up restocking demand from downstream copper semis producers could be unleashed, adding incremental refined copper consumption. Overall, refined copper consumption in the second half is projected to remain steady to moderately higher.
Written by Zhaorui Cui, cuizhaorui@mysteel.com
Edited by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
