On August 14, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for September delivery dropped by 1.14% by the end of Friday's daytime trading, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,945/tonne as of 1 a.m. Monday, August 17, 2026.
US July retail sales unexpectedly turned negative, falling 0.6% month-on-month, the largest drop in over a year. The Fed unexpectedly paused RMP bond purchases; Wall Street expects the pause to last at least until October, and TD Securities says repurchases could resume before year-end.
On August 14, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,870/tonne, down Yuan 260/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,920/tonne, down Yuan 280/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,760/tonne, down Yuan 250/tonne from the previous day.
Dragged by macro headwinds, aluminum prices shifted from gains to losses last week. Downstream buyers held to a restrained, just-in-time procurement pace early on; after prices dropped later in the week, end-user enterprises began releasing pent-up demand, while traders stepped in to source low-priced material for contract delivery. Traders' inventories drew down faster than the prior week, maintaining a steep destocking slope.
Last Friday, SHFE aluminum edged lower in early trading. Traders' inventories in Central China dipped and held steady around 160,000 tonnes. As the basis strengthened, holders tightened their selling pace, tightening spot availability, with offers quoted at parity to Yuan 10/tonne over the average price. The sustained price decline prompted downstream fabricators to step up purchases, while traders selectively sourced cheaper material on a need-to-basis. Overall market turnover was moderate.
In South China, the basis for A00 aluminum ingots edged down further, and the North-South price spread continued to narrow. However, spot supply in the South China market remained ample. Buyers pressed for lower prices and focused on warehouse-delivered, self-pickup material at discounted levels. Overall trading activity remained moderate.
Overall, With US July CPI and PPI data now in, markets have lowered expectations for a September Fed rate hike, and earlier bullish factors were priced in ahead of time. After aluminum turned from rally to pressure-driven trading, downstream demand gradually unlocked and destocking stayed intact. A US–Iran deal remains elusive, inflation-risk concerns are not fully cleared, and aluminum still faces resistance breaking above its upside range. Medium-to-long term, room for aluminum to move higher remains; near-term watch items are Middle East developments and the pace of domestic destocking.
