Mysteel's clean copper concentrate spot treatment charge (TC) index stood at -$181.25/dmt as of August 21, down by $5.03/dmt week on week.
Imported copper concentrate TCs continued to decline from low levels last week. Smelters showed limited acceptance, while traders, facing high procurement costs, held firm on their offers, leading to continuous contradiction. Some traders have secured forward cargoes for fourth-quarter (Q4) but were increasingly reluctant to sell. Overall market sentiment remained cautious, and the imported copper concentrate TC index is expected to stay suppressed in the near term.
Source: Mysteel
According to Mysteel's survey, overseas mines have gradually announced tender results, with prices falling to extremely low levels. A 10,000-tonne cargo scheduled for October-November shipment was sold to a trader at -$250/dmt, with the QP set at M+3. Meanwhile, a 20,000-tonne Las Bambas cargo for Q4 shipment was sold at -$256/dmt. Spot market transactions, however, were mainly conducted based on index deduction, with one trader selling 10,000 tonnes of clean concentrate to a smelter at $25/dmt below the index.
MMG Limited announced on August 19 that operations at its Las Bambas mine in Peru have been suspended, following an incident on August 18 that resulted in the deaths of two workers. Amid already tight concentrate supply, this has added another disruption to copper supply in South America. However, MMG expects operations to gradually resume from August 21 and has not yet revised its 2026 copper production guidance, suggesting this disruption may be short-lived.
China's average 98% smelting sulfuric acid price stood at Yuan 1,647/tonne on August 21, falling from Yuan 1,673/tonne on August 14, with the supplement to copper smelters' profits gradually weakening.
China's sulfuric acid prices are expected to vary across regions this week. On the cost side, sulfur prices will remain high and volatile, while prices of pyrite and non-ferrous metal ores such as copper, lead, and zinc may continue to stay elevated, providing strong cost support for sulfuric acid production. As a result, producers have limited room for significant price reductions. On the supply side, domestic sulfuric acid producers' operating rates are expected to remain largely stable this week. Most major producers are likely to maintain current output levels, with no large-scale maintenance or capacity expansion plans scheduled, and overall market supply is expected to remain steady. The demand side may continue to see slow recovery. The phosphate fertilizer market will remain cautious, but as autumn fertilizer preparation progresses, some companies may slightly increase operating rates, providing support for sulfuric acid demand. Meanwhile, demand from the chemical sector is expected to improve mildly, offering additional support for consumption. Nevertheless, after a prolonged period of price declines in most regions, downstream buyers become cautious, limiting the pace of demand recovery.
Overall, sulfuric acid production costs will remain well supported, and supply is expected to stay stable. However, demand recovery will stay slow, with notable regional differences. Sulfuric acid prices are expected to remain largely range-bound this week, with some regions adjusting prices flexibly based on local supply and demand conditions. Overall price fluctuations are likely to be limited.
Source: Mysteel
Recently, sulfuric acid prices have continued to decline amid weak demand and recovering supply, gradually reducing the contribution to copper smelters' profitability. Some smelters have already increased sulfuric acid output to secure profits. Moving forward, attention should be paid to the risk of a sharper decline in sulfuric acid prices, which could further weigh on copper smelters' profitability.
Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
