Piglet prices to remain soft amid weak hog fundamentals and bearish sentiment

More notably, the traditional hog restocking window has now passed, and market sentiment toward piglet prices is broadly pessimistic. Since the beginning of 2026, piglet prices have remained persistently below year-ago levels, with the seasonal peak reaching only Yuan 365.71/head, down 26.72% year-on-year. All signs suggest the piglet market is undergoing a deep adjustment driven by a combination of supply-demand imbalance and weakened confidence.

Looking back at this year's piglet price trend, "lacking strength in the peak season, and even weaker in the off-season" has become the defining feature.

Around Qingming Festival in April 2026, traditionally the peak hog restocking period, piglet prices fell for three consecutive weeks this year, highlighting a clear oversupply pattern. After entering September, prices fell slightly for a second consecutive two-week stretch. With the restocking window now closed, the market outlook is increasingly viewed with pessimism.

This piglet price performance is closely tied to the commercial hog market. Although hog prices have currently shown signs of stabilizing, they remain in a bottoming and oscillating phase. While occasional small stage rebounds occur, the overall trend remains weak. The sluggish hog market and persistently soft prices have dragged piglet prices down in tandem.

However, the continued weakness in the piglet market is not solely attributable to the drag from commercial hogs. The deeper causes lie in poor market expectations and insufficient confidence in the outlook, which have significantly dampened restocking enthusiasm on the breeding side.

Since September last year, the hog breeding sector has been persistently loss-making, with the industry as a whole mired in pessimistic expectations. According to Mysteel's survey, whether through farrow-to-finish operations or through purchasing piglets for fattening, hog breeding profits have both been around Yuan -161/head since entering 2026. Farmers have lacked confidence and hold poor expectations, especially small-scale and backyard producers, whose essential demand has shrunk, making it difficult to support a rebound in piglet prices. Against the backdrop of a prolonged loss-making cycle and mounting financial pressure, the breeding side is generally cautious about the outlook, and restocking willingness remains persistently low.

This lack of confidence is not a short-term emotional swing but reflects a rational assessment of the hog supply-demand landscape. Industry insiders note that although the sector is currently in a capacity-reduction phase, improving sow performance continues to drive up the number of newborn piglets and the average number of healthy piglets per litter, meaning piglet supply pressure is actually increasing. In other words, even if breeding sow inventory is reduced somewhat, actual piglet supply may not decline in tandem and may even keep growing due to improved production efficiency. This structural shift means the piglet market still faces considerable supply pressure amid capacity reduction, further intensifying the oversupply imbalance.

It is worth noting that the commercial hog market has already shown signs of stabilizing, with occasional small stage rebounds, yet the piglet market remains depressed and persistently weak. This divergence indicates that the weakness in the piglet market is not entirely determined by the hog market; its own supply-demand contradiction is more prominent. Especially with the restocking window now past, short-term demand is unlikely to increase significantly, while supply-side pressure persists, making it naturally difficult for piglet prices to improve.

Looking ahead, piglet prices are expected to remain rangebound near the bottom, with little prospect of a near-term rebound. The hog restocking window has closed, demand-side drivers remain absent, and supply-side pressure persists, leaving insufficient momentum for a price recovery. The piglet market is therefore likely to stay weak in the short term, with no meaningful upside in sight.

In the longer term, piglet prices are expected to slowly recover to around the cost line in December 2026 as restocking gradually enters the peak season. However, dragged down by the hog market and with the oversupply pattern difficult to change, prices will still remain at a relatively low level. The overall judgment is "bullish but not high", that is, piglet prices may recover somewhat, but the magnitude will be limited, and a return to previous highs will be difficult.

The core logic behind this judgment is threefold: first, the sluggish hog market is unlikely to fundamentally reverse in the short term, and its drag on piglet prices will persist; second, piglet supply pressure continues to increase, and the oversupply pattern is unlikely to improve significantly; third, the recovery of breeding-side confidence will take time, and restocking enthusiasm cannot be quickly restored. With bullish and bearish factors intertwined, even if piglet prices stage a seasonal recovery, both its strength and height will be limited.