China's refined copper trade showed a widening divergence in August, with imports falling further while exports rebounded. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC), China imported 209,300 tonnes of refined copper in August 2026, down 13.87% month on month and 20.56% year on year. In the first eight months of the year, imports totaled 1.8721 million tonnes, down 15.53% year on year.
Source: GACC, Mysteel
China's refined copper imports continued to decline in August, with both logistics disruptions and unfavorable import economics weighing on arrivals.
At the ports, typhoon-related disruptions persisted during the month, resulting in severe congestion and slower operational efficiency. Import vessels experienced varying degrees of berthing delays, which pushed back both the timing and pace of customs clearance for imported copper and constrained the volume of cargoes entering the domestic market.
Import economics also remained unfavorable. Significant import losses during August, combined with a wide COMEX-LME spread, limited the incentive for traders to bring overseas copper into China. Some holders showed little willingness to import, while certain arriving cargoes were instead transshipped to other destinations where arbitrage opportunities were more attractive. As a result, China's refined copper imports continued to weaken.
Regarding September, as China's import arbitrage has gradually strengthened, some traders have continued to lock in favorable import ratios while waiting for suitable timing to bring cargoes into China. At the same time, cooling expectations of U.S. tariff on imported refined copper have led to a notable narrowing of the COMEX-LME arbitrage spread, creating greater room for overseas copper to flow into Asian markets. Domestically, elevated spot premiums and the seasonal consumption peak in September and October have also strengthened traders' willingness to import. In addition, previously delayed vessels are expected to arrive in September, providing further support to import volumes. However, a considerable number of vessels remain queued at ports, while delays in berthing and unloading have yet to fully ease. Therefore, although China's refined copper imports are expected to increase in September, the month-on-month recovery may remain relatively modest.
China's refined copper exports reached 50,400 tonnes in August 2026, rising by 44.67% month on month and by 37.03% year on year, according to the GACC. Exports during January to August totaled 409,000 tonnes, falling by 10.57% year on year.
Source: GACC, Mysteel
The rebound in August exports was supported by a still-open export window. Smelters with export capacity continued to actively arrange shipments, while the LME 3M-Cash spread remained in backwardation, providing an additional incentive for some smelters to deliver copper into LME warehouses for profits. However, port congestion also constrained the actual volume of copper shipped overseas.
Moving forward, China's refined copper exports are expected to remain relatively stable in September, although the composition of shipments may change. Some smelters still have export plans for September, but most are primarily executing previously locked-in export orders rather than actively expanding new shipments. Meanwhile, domestic raw material availability has become increasingly challenging. Copper concentrate supply remains tight, while scrap copper replenishment has been constrained by the reverse invoicing policy, making raw material procurement more difficult for smelters. Against this backdrop, production cuts and maintenance are increasing, with refined copper output expected to decline further in September. At the same time, elevated domestic spot premiums and the relatively efficient pace of downstream long-term contract pickups have kept smelter inventories relatively low. This leaves limited room for additional unplanned exports.
According to Mysteel's survey, China's refined copper exports are estimated at around 50,000 tonnes in September, broadly steady with the August level.
Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
