According to market sources on August 6, the DRC government signed an inter-ministerial decree on June 29 banning the export of copper and cobalt concentrates, with the measure taking effect immediately. However, projects meeting strategic criteria may apply for export exemptions of up to one year. Meanwhile, the country plans to adjust the tax framework for economically important mining by-products, aiming to further encourage local processing, enhance industrial value chains, and increase fiscal revenues. Following the news, LME copper prices briefly climbed to $14,369.5/tonne, the highest level since January 29, before market sentiment eased and prices retreated intra-day.
The latest DRC policy largely represents a reinforcement and tightening of existing export controls. Previously, copper concentrate exports from the DRC were already subject to strict approval procedures, with companies required to obtain export quotas or exemptions before shipments. Therefore, the new ban's actual impact will still depend largely on the scope of exemptions granted and the effectiveness of policy implementation.
Notably, the ban comes at a time when the global copper concentrate market is already facing severe supply constraints, leading the greater impact to come through the concentrate market rather than refined copper. Although the market had already widely anticipated a reduction in DRC concentrate exports following the commissioning of the KAMOA copper smelting project at the end of 2025, the export ban may further exacerbate the situation. With less concentrate available for international buyers, global smelters will have fewer procurement options and competition for raw materials will intensify. Mysteel's clean copper concentrate spot treatment charge (TC) index stood at -$159.67/dmt as of July 31, marking a historically low level. As fewer DRC concentrates will be available for international trade, TCs will face further downward pressure.
The DRC primarily exports copper in the form of refined metal, however. According to official data, the country exported 696,725 tonnes of refined copper in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 53,926 tonnes of copper concentrates containing 18,863 tonnes of copper. In recent years, the DRC has increasingly shifted from exporting concentrates toward domestic processing. Most copper ore produced in the country is already processed locally into blister copper or anode copper before being shipped overseas, and local demand for copper concentrate is expected to increase further. Consequently, the export ban is unlikely to significantly reduce overseas metal supply, as copper will still eventually enter global markets.
China's direct exposure to DRC copper concentrate remains relatively limited. According to the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC), China imported approximately 14.61 million tonnes of copper concentrate in the first half of 2026, of which imports from the DRC totaled around 270,600 tonnes, down 30.9% year on year and accounting for only 1.85% of total imports. In the same period of 2025, DRC accounted for 2.66%. The declining share indicates that the DRC has already become a less significant source of imported concentrate for China, suggesting that the immediate impact of the export ban on China's concentrate supply will likely be limited.
Compared with copper concentrate, the DRC plays a much more important role in China's refined copper supply chain. In the first half of 2026, China imported approximately 1.699 million tonnes of refined copper, including 706,200 tonnes from the DRC, up 4.4% year on year and accounting for 41.58% of total imports. Meanwhile, in June 2026 alone, China imported around 24,000 tonnes of blister copper and anode copper from the DRC, accounting for 32.80% of total anode copper imports. Although copper concentrate volumes and refined copper volumes cannot be directly compared due to differences in physical and metal content, the data clearly shows that DRC's copper exports to China have increasingly shifted from upstream raw materials toward refined copper products.
Overall, the DRC's copper concentrate export ban is expected to accelerate the transformation of its copper export structure, shifting shipments from concentrates toward anode copper, blister copper, and refined copper. Existing smelting capacity will allow the country to process part of its concentrate output domestically before exporting, limiting the impact on global copper metal supply. However, if smelting capacity, electricity supply, and logistics infrastructure fail to expand to hold additional supply, the policy could lead to higher concentrate inventory inside the DRC and delays in refined copper product exports. More importantly, the reduction in freely available concentrates will add further pressure to the global copper concentrate market, keeping TCs under strain and reinforcing concerns over long-term raw material availability.
Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
