The MPOB report was bearish. India, due to disruptions to sunflower oil transportation caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has purchased large volumes of palm oil as a substitute, providing some support to the external market. Domestically, three new vessel purchases for December and two for February shipment periods have been added. Future arrivals are expected to be relatively large, and combined with commercial inventories at a high year-on-year level, spot basis is weak and consolidating. The National Climate Center has confirmed that a super El Nio event formed in September 2026, posing a potential expectation for production cut in major producing countries in 2027, though this is difficult to realize in the short term. Palm oil is expected to remain weak and range-bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pace of domestic inventory accumulation and India's purchasing rhythm.