Since the start of China's National Day holiday, freight rates on the Baltic C3 route have retreated sharply, falling to the US $32-33/tonne range as of October 12, 2026. The sustained decline in freight costs has markedly shifted market sentiment.
Earlier, ahead of the holiday, following the release of a long-term contract quote by a major Guinean miner, traders quickly lifted their offers in tandem.
According to Mysteel's survey, Guinean bauxite with a standard 45/3 specification saw offers climb to as high as US $77/dmt before the break, but these have since eased back in line with falling freight rates, with the latest quotes at around US $72.5-73/dmt, No deals have been concluded at these levels so far.
Based on Mysteel's calculations, current freight rates remain about US $2–3/tonne above the threshold that would trigger restarts at previously curtailed or idled mines. Back-calculating from the current mainstream transaction price of US $72–73/dmt, a freight rate of approximately US $30/tonne would significantly boost Guinean miners' willingness to resume shipments.
On the flip side, even if freight rates drop to US $30/tonne or below in the near term, any increase in Guinean export volumes would not materialize immediately. Factoring in the typical timeline from spot vessel charter to loading and eventual dispatch, if freight rates continue to trend lower through October, the resulting volume growth would only begin to show in mid-to-late November, intensifying downward pressure on Guinean import prices.
In summary, Mysteel believes Guinean bauxite prices face considerable headwinds while freight rates remain in a downtrend. Overall, should freight rates maintain their downward trajectory, import bauxite prices carry a risk of modest retreat from November onwards.
Written by Regina WANG
wangjiaqie@mysteel.com
