A Glance of China Oil Market 20261019
Weekly News
China's Oct refined oil production likely to remain constrained by crude supply
According to OilChem's survey, China's refined oil production is estimated at 32.31 million tonnes among sampled refineries. Although the total volume rises, the daily average falls 2.58% month on month (MoM) after adjusting for one extra calendar day. By product, gasoline, gasoil, and jet fuel output all declined, with jet fuel posting the sharpest drop. In October, domestic crude inventories have continued to draw down when the persisting U.S.-Iran standoff has made navigation through the Strait of Hormuz uncertain, with refined oil production expected to fall accordingly.
Middle East LNG disruption raises China's winter gas costs
While China sees no overall gas supply shortfall for the coming heating season, persistent Middle East geopolitical turmoil has disrupted its regular pre-winter LNG inventory buildup and eroded receiving-terminal safety stock buffers. Coupled with higher spot prices, LNG procurement costs face notable upside risks this winter. Though alternative imports from Australia and Russia have offset lost volumes, supply risks have shifted from physical gas availability to procurement-cost pressures and supply-source structural uncertainties.
Strong cost support drives base oil prices higher post-holiday
After the holiday, base oil refiners still have previous orders on hand, keeping sales pressure manageable. Coupled with strong cost support from crude oil, refiners show a clear willingness to hold prices firm, and some grade quotations have moved higher.
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