A Glance of China Oil Market 20260914
Weekly News
China LPG gains on higher import costs, yet buyer resistance caps upside
Middle East tensions have raised import costs and pushed China's LPG market higher in September, moving it into a supply deficit. However, high prices are squeezing margins for traders and distributors, dampening buying interest and capping further gains. According to OilChem, the average residential LPG price in China stood at Yuan 7,162/t on September 8, up 58% year-on-year.
Pre-winter restocking and weak Hormuz transits push European and Asian natural gas prices higher
International natural gas markets show clear regional divergence in September, with North American prices going range-bound while TTF and DES China prices continuing to climb. Strait of Hormuz transits remain persistently low, and logistical constraints and pre-winter stockpiling jointly push up European and Asian gas prices. Market pricing logic has shifted from short-term conflict concerns to a dual driver of shipping deterrence and spot procurement.
Winter natural gas pricing logic shifts from temperature to supply-side dynamics in China
Authoritative monitoring by the NCC and the NMEFC shows that a strong to super El Nio event in late 2026 is set to raise temperatures and curb baseline winter heating demand. However, supply-side variables, including LNG arbitrage-driven term cargo diversion and declining domestic natural gas output, are replacing temperature as the core driver of winter natural gas prices. The market pricing logic has fundamentally shifted.
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