Winter natural gas pricing logic shifts from temperature to supply-side dynamics in China

Authoritative monitoring by the NCC and the NMEFC shows that a strong to super El Nio event in late 2026 is set to raise temperatures and curb baseline winter heating demand. However, supply-side variables, including LNG arbitrage-driven term cargo diversion and declining domestic natural gas output, are replacing temperature as the core driver of winter natural gas prices. The market pricing logic has fundamentally shifted.

Temperature has long been seen as the primary gauge for winter natural gas prices, but the 2026-2027 winter fundamentals suggest the pricing logic has shifted to the supply side. Authoritative monitoring by the National Climate Center (NCC) and the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC) shows that the El