The prices of China's domestic bauxite held steady last week. Supply-side bottlenecks for domestic ore are unlikely to ease in the short term, with mines prioritizing supply guarantees for contracted buyers and few spots available for the spot market. While alumina refineries have maintained essential procurement of domestic ore, imported ore has remained their primary supplementary source, with on-site inventories staying at relatively high levels.
In terms of imported ore, ocean freight rates posted a modest consecutive rebound last week, reaching around US $34/tonne. However, alumina refineries believe that miners and traders had already booked vessels in bulk during the earlier low-price period. As a result, seaborne costs for upcoming shipments will remain relatively low, keeping refineries' price-suppression intentions strong and largely unchanged.
From a transaction perspective, trading activity for Guinean ore slightly improved last week, but price divergence was notable. On one hand, some spot Guinean cargoes pending shipment were concluded at relatively low prices. On the other hand, some traders remained firmly bullish on the outlook, actively purchasing spot cargoes at relatively high prices for holding.
Overall, although ocean freight has rebounded recently, constrained by narrowing alumina profit margins and the earlier arbitrage window for vessel bookings, import ore prices continue to face downward pressure. Market offers have increased compared to the previous period, but refineries' acceptable price levels remain low, making deals difficult to strike.
Mysteel expects import bauxite prices to maintain a slightly weaker, rangebound trend in the near term. Fluctuations in ocean freight rates and whether alumina refineries will implement production cuts or maintenance plans going forward are key focal points for the market.
During October 16-22, 2026, total bauxite shipments from major global producing countries reached 4.58 million tonnes, with 4.07 million tonnes destined for China, down 11.49% week-on-week. Seaborne cargo in transit stood at 16.88 million tonnes, primarily originating from Guinea and Australia.
Last week, shipments from both Guinea and Australia declined in tandem, jointly driving the overall shipment reduction. By country, Guinea's shipments to China totaled 3.31 million tonnes, down 8.27% week-on-week, a relatively moderate decline. Australia's shipments to China stood at 753,600 tonnes, down 23.33% week-on-week, a significantly steeper drop than Guinea, indicating a clear short-term slowdown in shipping pace.
Combined seaborne inventories (on-vessel) for Guinea and Australia remained elevated at 16.88 million tonnes, ensuring a steady stream of arrivals at Chinese ports in the near term. In the shipping market, freight rates have not sustained their earlier decline; with international oil prices running high, further downside in freight costs appears limited in the short term.
As of October 23, 2026, total bauxite inventories at major Chinese ports stood at 32.33 million tonnes, down 0.33% week-on-week. The destocking pace this week was moderate, concentrated mainly at ports in the Bohai Rim and Fangchenggang, while Shandong's main ports remained broadly stable. Tianjin Port and Laizhou Port led the declines, while Rizhao Port saw a relatively notable build, reflecting periodic concentration of arrivals. Overall inventories remain within a high-range operating band, indicating ample spot supply at ports in the short term.
Written by Regina WANG
wangjiaqie@mysteel.com
