The imported bauxite market showed mixed signals last week, with term price negotiations for both 2026 and 2027 cargoes underway, while concluded deals edged lower amid persistent weakness in alumina prices.
In the imported market, a major Guinean miner released its November term price last week. While its FOB offer was unchanged, ocean freight fell by US $3.5/tonne, in line with oil price adjustments. Some refineries took a cautious view on the offer, while others accepted it. Overall, October finalization activity was better than in September.
Separately, an Australian mine began discussing 2027 term prices with downstream buyers. Both specifications and prices were adjusted slightly higher. Refineries were divided: some found the offer acceptable, while others still hope to negotiate further.
In terms of concluded deals, Guinean ore trading was more active last week, with deal prices edging lower. According to Mysteel's survey and verification, the latest traded prices for Guinean ore with 45/3 grade ranged between US $70.8-72/dmt, depending on the discharge port in northern or southern China. Based on this, Mysteel lowered its price assessment for standard 45/3 Guinean ore to US $71.5/dmt.
On the demand side, alumina prices have remained on a downward trend. In southern China, alumina capacity curtailments and maintenance have emerged, mostly at refineries using domestic ore. Given that current alumina spot prices have pushed some refineries into losses and even negative cash flow, while ore prices have fallen far less than alumina, operating capacity may edge lower ahead, weighing on import demand. Mysteel expects imported bauxite prices to move in a narrow range under downward pressure in the near term.
Shipping
Over October 23-29, 2026, Guinean shipments to China went up 6.42% week on week. The increase was moderate. The higher shipments driven by earlier freight declines mainly reflected newly fixed vessels, which are expected to arrive in mid-to-late November and were not yet reflected in this week's data. Australian shipments to China dropped 1.59% week on week, with the shipping pace easing slightly. Combined seaborne cargo from the two countries remained high, suggesting continued arrival pressure at Chinese ports.
On the shipping side, the prolonged decline in freight rates has ended, and supported by elevated international oil prices, further near-term downside in freight rates appears limited.
Port Arrivals and Inventories
Over October 23-29, 2026, 35 bauxite vessels arrived at major Chinese ports, mainly from Guinea and Australia, rising 21.02% week on week. As of October 30, 2026, inventories at major Chinese ports stood at 32.35 million tonnes, up 0.07% week on week. Port inventories edged up 0.07% last week and were largely flat from the previous week.
By region, most northern ports saw stocks build, with Tianjin port posting the sharpest increase as arrivals concentrated at major northern ports. Southern ports and southern Shandong ports mainly destocked: Qingdao and Rizhao ports saw mild draws, while Fangchenggang destocked noticeably, reflecting faster offtake by southern alumina refineries.
Overall, total inventories were little changed, with arrivals and offtake largely balanced. Considering the high seaborne volume earlier, sustained arrivals will continue to replenish supply, but regional divergence remains clear: northern ports face rising stockpiling pressure, while southern refineries' restocking demand supports destocking. Total port inventories are unlikely to fall sharply in the near term. Continued monitoring of arrival schedules by port, refinery maintenance and offtake willingness is needed.
