On October 30, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract increased by 0.15% by the end of Friday's daytime trading and fell by 0.36% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,280/tonne as of 1 a.m. Monday, November 2, 2026.
In the aluminum sector, the macro backdrop shows the Fed keeping rates unchanged in October, yet December rate-hike odds still sit near 80%. The US dollar index and Treasury yields keep pressuring valuations across non-ferrous metals, while PCE up 3.6% year-on-year tightens the hawkish constraint further.
On the fundamental side, domestic traders' inventories of aluminum ingots have fallen to 501,000 tonnes, a low level for the same period in recent years. At high aluminum prices, fabricators are prioritizing the consumption of their own stocks and delaying ingot restocking, which has weakened the marginal support that low inventories provide to prices.
On October 30, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 23,780/tonne, up Yuan 40/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 23,790/tonne, up Yuan 60/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,590/tonne, up Yuan 40/tonne from the previous day.
On last Friday's morning session, SHFE aluminum fluctuated higher. In the Central Plains market, traders' inventories declined and stayed around 80,000 tonnes. The basis kept widening; holders actively sold material to cash out, leaving ample supply in the market. Aluminum prices edged up, downstream buyers purchased as needed, and purchasing willingness improved somewhat. Traders entered the market cautiously. Overall turnover was mediocre.
In the South China market, holders were more worried about the outlook and remained keen to offload stock. Under the SHFE aluminum backwardation structure, the spread between the prompt and next-month contracts was excessively wide, making spot hedging operations difficult; holders therefore had weak willingness to hold inventory. Downstream end-users bought on dips, and overall trading was also just fair.
Overall, the bullish momentum is fading at the margin. This week's key focus is whether inventory drawdowns can re-accelerate, and whether there will be any data signals on the macro side strong enough to reverse rate-hike expectations. If destocking remains sluggish and the hawkish macro tone persists, there is a risk that the price center will test the lower bound of its trading range.
