Last week, domestic alumina prices continued their soft trend, with market trading activity remaining subdued.
The move in alumina prices was mainly driven by weaker spot trading enthusiasm in the domestic market. Some futures-and-physical traders showed relatively stronger interest in sourcing cargoes, while downstream buyers maintained their regular tender rhythm. Although available spot volume between alumina refineries and traditional traders tightened somewhat from earlier levels, there were still no clear signs of meaningful improvement in fundamentals, keeping spot prices under pressure and pushing them lower.
On supply side, domestic alumina operating capacity is about 98.90 million tonnes per year. Recently, Refinery A in Guangxi took one production line offline for maintenance, involving about 500,000 tonnes per year. Refinery B in Guangxi, hit by tighter supply of local domestic bauxite, carried out a first round of minor output cuts in early October and has now further trimmed run rates to about 1 million tonnes per year; its normal operating capacity is around 2.3 million tonnes per year. Refinery C in Guangxi remains in a reduced-output state on one line--about 1 million tonnes per year--due to cost and other factors.
As of last Thursday October 29, 2026, national alumina capacity utilization rates averaged 82.67%, down 0.28 percentage points from the prior week. Heading into year-end and the long-term contract negotiation cycle, southern refineries have successively moved into longer-duration maintenance-style curtailments for self- or cost-related reasons. Supply-side changes are happening more frequently, and cross-region flows such as southern alumina moving north are rising, leaving regionally available spot tighter than before.
According to Mysteel, domestic aluminum smelters consumed about 1.68 million tonnes of alumina last week, little changed from the prior week. Domestic aluminum operating capacity is about 45.42 million tonnes per year. With smelter margins still high, Chinese aluminum producers are keen to keep output stable and run at high rates; some capacity replacement continues to advance, so short-term rigid demand for alumina is steady-to-slightly higher.
Northern smelters continue to hold high raw-material stocks and adopt a buy-on-dips restocking strategy, aiming to lock in forward margins and hedge against winter logistics disruptions and upstream environmental curtailments. Meanwhile, under the dual pressure of operations and long-term contract supply obligations, some alumina refiners are using line upgrades or commissioning adjustments to lift near-term competitiveness.
Yet, versus the highly profitable aluminum smelting side, domestic alumina producers still face persistent price drift-lower and cost-cutting pressure. Because no concentrated, large-scale output cuts have emerged, sporadic curtailments have done little to lift sentiment.
Last week, domestic alumina traders' inventory stood at 7.1 million tonnes, up 39,000 tonnes week-on-week. Aluminum smelters currently hold ample raw material inventories, but still show strong restocking appetite when prices dip. This has strained storage capacity, and some smelters have temporarily stacked alumina at nearby ports and railway stations. In addition, environmental controls in North China recently curtailed transport availability; shipments fell last week and refinery inventories built up slightly.
The supply-demand setup shows no near-term sign of turning. Softer futures prices have prompted some low-priced material to flow into the market. Spot prices are expected to stay soft this week, with a forecast range of Yuan 2,500–2,620/tonne.
Written by Regina WANG
wangjiaqie@mysteel.com
