Premium: Lower arrivals lift spot premiums
China's refined copper spot premiums rose last week. Refined copper arrivals remained low during the week, pushing retail inventories to a new low for the year and strengthening holders' resolve to support prices. Even as spot trading activity declined, the spot premium still posted a sizable week-on-week gain. Looking ahead, Shanghai's refined copper arrivals are expected to increase slightly in early November and holders' price-support sentiment may weaken, so the spot premium may retreat. However, given low inventories, the pullback is expected to be limited. Spot supply in Guangdong, Tianjin and Chongqing is expected to remain tight, so spot premiums are likely to stay firm or even rise further.
According to Mysteel, refined copper spot premium ranges are forecast with Guangdong at Yuan 800-1,500/tonne, Tianjin at Yuan 800-1,300/tonne, and Chongqing at Yuan 600-1,100/tonne this week.
Supply: Limited smelter deliveries and slower imports tighten spot supply
China's refined copper spot supply tightened further last week. By market, in Shanghai and Guangdong, some smelters' shipments declined due to maintenance, while imports were affected by delayed vessel arrivals, further limiting spot availability. In Tianjin, two local smelters remained under maintenance, reducing output and limiting shipments. Meanwhile, spot arrivals in Chongqing were also relatively limited. Overall, China's refined copper supply remained tight last week. Looking ahead, although early-month arrivals may improve slightly in some markets, spot supply in most markets is expected to stay tight amid smelter maintenance and limited imported copper. China's refined copper spot supply is unlikely to improve significantly in the near term.
Demand: High copper prices and high premiums slow spot trading
China's refined copper spot trading volume fell week on week last week. In Shanghai, downstream buying interest was weak amid high premiums, and with copper prices volatile, most firms stayed on the sidelines, making only essential purchases when prices were low. In Guangdong, buying sentiment was decent early in the week, but as spot premiums hit a new year-to-date high during the week, downstream buyers became increasingly cautious in spot purchases and trading slowed. In Tianjin and Chongqing, spot trading was also dampened by high copper prices and high premiums, and with limited new orders from end-user customers, market trading sentiment was poor.
According to Mysteel's survey of 56 Chinese refined copper trading enterprises (including smelters, traders and downstream processors), China's refined copper spot trading volume was 18.5 kilotonnes between October 26-30, down by 5.3 kilotonnes, or 22.1%, from the October 19-23 figure.
Looking ahead, spot trading volume is expected to improve somewhat in the near term. Although incremental end-user orders are still likely to be limited in the short term, copper prices may trend lower recently due to macro headwinds. If prices fall, downstream bargain buying is expected to modestly boost spot trading volume this week.
Import: Cargo arrival delays slow imported copper trade
During October 19-23, as copper prices fluctuated at home and abroad, China's refined copper import profit declined week on week, shifting from profit to loss and staying in loss for most of the period. In market trading, relatively few cargo vessels arrived at Yangshan Port during the week, tightening quoted supply and strengthening holders' sentiment to raise offers. Import premiums thus continued to climb, while overall market activity declined and trading volume weakened. Looking ahead, although copper prices may fall in the near term, China's spot premium remains firm, so the refined copper import ratio and profit are expected to improve.
Inventory: China's refined copper retail and bonded inventory decline further WoW
China's refined copper retail inventory declined last week. With some smelters under maintenance and running at reduced output, the volume of spot cargoes shipped to the market was relatively limited during the week. Meanwhile, import shipment schedules were delayed into early November, so the replenishment from cleared arrivals at port was likewise limited. As a result, inventory fell further. Looking ahead to this week, some imported cargoes have started to arrive as replenishment, but the increase may not appear notable, and smelter shipments are unlikely to improve. Therefore, China's refined copper retail inventory is expected to continue falling.
China's refined copper bonded inventory also continued to decline. During the week, cargoes at certain warehouses were successively cleared through customs and imported into the domestic market, and with arrival schedules delayed by typhoon, recent warehouse inflows were relatively sparse, leading inventory to fall. Looking ahead to this week, as domestic spot premiums remain elevated, some importers are still expected to bring cargoes in. Bonded inventory is therefore expected to keep declining, though the magnitude of the decline may narrow somewhat.
The COMEX-LME refined copper price spread stayed low, averaging $158.47/tonne over October 26-30, increasing by $39.32/tonne week on week. The LME cash-3M settlement spread remained high, averaging $191.7/tonne for the week, up by $53.5/tonne week on week. With LME cash premiums elevated, LME inventories rebounded slightly, while the COMEX-LME copper price spread remained at low levels, limiting inventory growth at COMEX. Looking ahead, the U.S. refined copper tariff ruling is a key factor shaping global refined copper inventory trends from Q4 2026 to H1 2027. If implemented as scheduled, COMEX inventories will remain high, while LME inventories are expected to stay in a tight balance due to tight non-U.S. spot supply. If the ruling is further delayed or weakened, COMEX inventory backflow and an LME inventory rebound may occur simultaneously.
More regular analysis and comprehensive data on China's copper industry are available in Mysteel Copper Weekly, Mysteel Copper Monthly, and Mysteel Copper Database. Reach out to us via Mysteel's official website: Latest & Reliable Copper Market Price in China | Mysteel, and follow Mysteel Non-Ferrous for more insights!
Written by Zhaorui Cui, cuizhaorui@mysteel.com
Edited by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
