Indonesian President recently confirmed an export ban for bauxite starting in June next year as scheduled.
Indonesia, one of major bauxite supplier to China, has exported 18 million tonnes of bauxite to China in Jan-Nov, accounting for 15.6% of total China's imports. The proportion of Indonesian bauxite in China was 16.6% in 2021.
Data: GACC, Mysteel
Some Chinese market players showed concerns over a short-term supply tightness of seaborne bauxite if new projects in Guinea can not release production in H1 2023. However, most market players believe that it will not cause a supply shortage of imported ore in China.
Mysteel believes that the ban will have a limited and short-term impact on Chinese market. Compared with 2014-2017, when Indonesia imposed bauxite export ban, China's imports are more diversified now. After Indonesia repeatedly stressed the ban, mining companies and Chinese refineries have already made plans for the ban. Chinese consumers can seek cargoes from other sources, which will cause a further increase in imports from non-mainstream sources, and will likely be a short-term stimulus to seaborne bauxite prices.
Besides, some mining companies have made plans to increase or restart exports to China. For example, Alufer Mining's bauxite will come back to the market early next year, and Brazil is likely to restart export to China.
