Mongolia's coal exports seen reaching 75 million t in '24

The prediction – based on the fact that over 53 million tonnes of coal have already been exported so far this year– will mean a 25% rise from Mongolia's earlier target for coal exports at 60 million tonnes for the year, Mysteel Global notes.

This will also represent a 12.4% jump compared with the 66.7 million tonnes exported by Mongolia in 2023 – already higher by a sizzling 110.5% from 2022, according to the country's Customs data.

The main driver for the substantial increase in Mongolia's coal exports is swelling demand from China (Mongolia's only buyer so far this year), as well as the cost competitiveness of Mongolian coal cargoes, Mysteel Global understands.

Affected by clear output falls at Chinese domestic mines this year due to authorities' stringent safety checks, Chinese end-users have sought more coal cargoes from neighboring Mongolia, especially supplies of premium coking coal grades that have been undersupplied in the domestic market.

Data from China's National Bureau of Statistics show that China's total raw coal production over January-July registered a 0.8% on-year drop to reach 2.66 billion tonnes, though slowing from the 4.2% decline recorded during January-February.

Besides, Mongolia has facilitated exports of thermal coal to China this year, which also contributed to its higher coal export volume. Its thermal coal deliveries to China jumped by 38.4% on year to 11.69 million tonnes in the first seven months, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs.

Notably, the Mandula border port in North China's Inner Mongolia, the third largest coal gateway on the Sino-Mongolian border, saw a substantial lift in coal handling capacity due to the operation of two additional bonded warehouses by Chinese Customs at the port. This has also helped to boost Mongolia's coal exports.

As of August 21, cargo clearance through the inland port had soared by 69.6% on year to over 5 million tonnes, creating a new record high compared with the corresponding periods in previous years.

Written by Tammy Yang, yangfangb@mysteel.com

Edited by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com