CONF: China's EAF output set to rise as steelmaking pathways diverge

As China advances toward its carbon peaking and neutrality goals, the country's steelmaking landscape -- currently dominated by the blast-furnace (BF) route -- is set to diversify, with electric-arc-furnace (EAF) production poised to play a far greater role, according to Shangguan Fangqin, director of the Green and Intelligent Steel Technology Center at the China Iron & Steel Research Institute Group (CISRI).

Speaking at the National Steel Scrap Conference 2025 hosted by Mysteel in South China's Haikou on November 11, Shangguan outlined that China's steel industry will evolve toward three main production routes.

In the future, the traditional BF route will gradually be phased out, retaining only large, high-efficiency furnaces for the mass production of high-end steel plates. These will be concentrated in coastal regions and near major mining sites, Shangguan said.

Meanwhile, 100% steel scrap-based EAFs will replace small and medium-sized BFs to produce construction-grade steel products such as rebar and wire rod, typically located closer to urban centers. In addition, specialized hydrogen-based EAFs will emerge for the production of manufacturing special steels, though their capacity will remain relatively limited.

"Currently, EAFs account for less than 10% of China's total steel output," Shangguan noted. "By 2035, that share is expected to reach around 27.7%, and by 2045 it could expand to about 56.1%, making EAFs the dominant steelmaking process."

This structural transition will depend heavily on the availability and distribution of steel scrap within China. For EAFs to grow, a larger portion of the country's scrap resources will need to be directed to EAF producers, Shangguan emphasized.

At present, the BF route consumes roughly 70% of all steel scrap used by China's steel industry, while EAFs account for the remaining 30%, according to the CISRI data.

Looking ahead, Shangguan also projected that China's total crude steel production will decline significantly in the coming years, as national per capita steel consumption falls in line with economic restructuring and slower infrastructure growth.

By 2030, China's annual crude steel output is expected to drop to between 922 million and 948 million tonnes -- down 8.2% to 10.8% from the 2023 level. By 2060, the steel output could fall further to between 616 million and 731 million tonnes, according to the CISRI estimates.

Written by Anthea Shi, shihui@mysteel.com

Edited by Vivian Yang, yangzhenqi@mysteel.com