Vale to hit upper end of 2025 output target, cuts 2026 estimate

Under the 2025 output guidance of 325-335 million tonnes, the company had produced a total of 245.7 million tonnes during the first nine months of this year, higher by 1.3% on year, as reported.

In addition, Vale estimated its iron ore output to range between 335 million and 345 million tonnes next year, lower than the previous forecast of 340-360 million tonnes, while the production guidance for 2030 remained at about 360 million tonnes.

The latest cut in its iron ore production target for the coming year likely reflects the miner's concerns about slowing demand for its iron ore products, as steel production in China, the world's largest iron ore consumer, moderates while a new supply of similar high-grade ore from Africa comes online, Mysteel Global notes.

The mining giant's total capital expenditure for 2026 is projected at $5.4-5.7 billion, lower than the prior forecast of $6.5 billion. Of that, about $4 billion will be allocated to iron ore solutions, while the remainder is earmarked for base metals, mainly copper and nickel, the announcement showed.

Vale also expects to hit the upper end of its copper and nickel output targets this year, with about 370 million tonnes of copper and 175 million tonnes of nickel to be produced by the year-end. The company is targeting production of 350 million to 380 million tonnes of copper next year, and the forecast for nickel production is set at 175-200 million tonnes.

Source: Vale

Written by Irene Zhuang, zhuangailing@mysteel.com

Edited by Alyssa Ren, rentingting@mysteel.com