CNIA: China's aluminum sector peaks carbon emissions in 2024

The Action Plan for Carbon Peaking in China's Nonferrous Metals Industry, jointly released by three government departments in November 2022, requires renewable energy to account for more than 30% of energy consumption in the country's primary aluminum industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030).

This was to ensure that the country's nonferrous metals sector reaches a peak in carbon emissions by 2030, though GE did not say what emissions level had been proscribed by the central government for the aluminum sector which was not be passed by 2030.

According to preliminary estimates cited by Ge, carbon emissions from China's aluminum industry peaked at approximately 555 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2024 and are expected to ease in 2025, as primary aluminum output is poised to plateau.

Given its high energy intensity, primary aluminum production remains the decisive factor in determining the industry's carbon-peaking trajectory. Carbon emissions from this segment account for around 80% of total emissions from the aluminum industry and roughly 70% of emissions across the nonferrous metals sector, making it the core focus of decarbonization efforts, Ge emphasized.

In recent years, growth in China's primary aluminum output has slowed and is nearing the industry's capacity upper-limit of 45 million tonnes/year. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that national primary aluminum production increased from 38.49 million tonnes in 2021 to 43.82 million tonnes in 2024 and is forecast to edge up to 44.2 million tonnes this year.

Beyond primary aluminum capacity constraints, structural adjustments across the industry have helped reduce CO2 emissions, including the increased use of 'green' electricity, expanding secondary aluminum production, and reducing energy consumption, Ge said.

To improve green power usage, China has accelerated the relocation of primary aluminum capacity to regions with rich clean-energy resources and lower electricity costs. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021–2024), more than 5 million tonnes of capacity were relocated, leading to the formation of renewable energy–based aluminum production clusters in the hydropower-rich Yunnan and Sichuan provinces in Southwest China, and in the windpower-rich Inner Mongolia autonomous region in North China.

Meanwhile, as a material for production of processed aluminum products, secondary aluminum has also played an important role in reducing the industry's carbon footprint. Producing secondary aluminum consumes only about 5% of the energy required for primary aluminum, making it one of the most effective pathways for emissions reduction, according to Ge. China's output of secondary aluminum has surged by 31.9% from 8 million tonnes in 2021 to 10.55 million tonnes in 2024 and is projected to reach 11.6 million tonnes in 2025.

In addition, the average comprehensive power consumption for the country's primary aluminum smelting sector declined by 1.9% from 13,519 kilowatt-hours/tonne in 2021 to 13,262 kWh/t in 2024 and is likely to fall further below the 13,262 kWh/t level in 2025.

Written by Iris Pang, pangjunyu@mysteel.com

Edited by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com