Guinea-led bauxite boom reinforces capesize freight prospects in 2026

Source: AL Circle Jan 09, 2026 18:20

Backed by a resilient Chinese import demand and sustained export growth from Guinea, bauxite is projected to remain a critical stabilising factor for the capesize freight market in 2026. A steep rise of 22 per cent in Guinea’s bauxite exports helps compensate for the weaker coal volume while providing optimum support to the tonne-mile demand, says Signal Ocean’s Commodity Radar. As a result, bauxite flows have been instrumental in keeping the capesize segment on an even keel. Globally, the bauxite trade in 2025 stands 18 per cent higher than in 2024, with China contributing the majority of the incremental demand.

With a steady expansion of Guinea's export momentum in 2025, bauxite has become the second-largest capesize commodity after iron ore. Guinea now accounts for 69 per cent of the global bauxite exports, compared with 18 per cent for Australia. While the production levels are a close match, 130 million

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