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FLASH: ESDM estimates Indonesia's nickel production to fall by up to 15% in 2026

Source: Mysteel Jan 23, 2026 10:11
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Nickel Industry Policy Supply

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) plans to lower the nickel ore production target in its 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) to maintain supply-demand balance in the global nickel market. Tri Winarno, Director General of Minerals and Coal at the ministry, expects nickel ore output this year to decrease by approximately 10% to 15% compared to last year.

 

In an interview at the parliamentary complex, Tri stated that the government remains open to domestic smelters importing nickel ore--particularly from the Philippines. He also noted that imports from the Philippines are not expected to increase significantly and will likely remain at the current level of 10 to 15 million tonnes per year.

 

It is reported that the government plans to set the nickel production target for 2026 at around 250 to 260 million tonnes, lower than the original 379 million tonnes outlined in the 2025 RKAB. Tri explained that this adjustment is intended to align with the actual capacity needs of domestic processing plants.

 

Additionally, he acknowledged that reducing production is one of the strategies aimed at supporting nickel prices. Following the implementation of this policy, global nickel prices once climbed to US $18,000 per tonne.

 

Regarding the progress of RKAB approvals, Tri mentioned that the evaluation process is still ongoing and being handled alongside new applications. He also indicated that existing RKABs can continue to be used until March, and the overall process has not been significantly disrupted.

 

Written by Cora Ji, jiruyan@mysteel.com

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