Nickel Sulfate
In February, China's physical nickel sulfate production reached 199,500 tonnes, or 43,900 tonnes in Ni. content, marking a month-on-month decrease of 16.2%. The production comprised 0% nickel briquette/powder, 54.33% MHP, 36.21% high-grade nickel matte, 8.42% secondary nickel, and 1.59% NPI by raw material. This includes approximately 13,700 tonnes of nickel sulfate used to produce nickel plate.
The decline in China's nickel sulfate production in February was primarily attributed to two concurrent factors: first, reduced working days due to the Chinese New Year holiday and maintenance shutdowns at some smelters; second, a significant drop in downstream ternary precursor demand, which dampened production enthusiasm among nickel salt producers.
China's nickel sulfate production in March is estimated at 53,100 tonnes in Ni. content, up 21.06% month-on-month. As the holiday ends and downstream enterprises fully resume operations, the procurement is gradually recovering. Meanwhile, the policy effect of tightened nickel ore RKAB quotas in Indonesia continues to unfold, and there is a slight increase in demand for electrowinning nickel and electrolytic nickel between February and March, and a notable recovery in downstream ternary material demand in March. Driven by high raw material costs and expectations of post-holiday restocking, smelters' willingness to produce has strengthened, which leads to a significant projected month-on-month increase in March production.
MHP
Based on Mysteel surveys of nine sample projects in Indonesia, the production of MHP in Indonesia reached 39,000 tonnes in Ni. content in February, down 4.30% compared to the previous month but up 9.98% year-on-year.
From January to February, the cumulative MHP production in Indonesia totaled 79,700 tonnes in Ni. content, an increase of 4.75% year-on-year.
The projected MHP production in Indonesia for March 2026 is 37,800 tonnes in Ni. content, representing a month-on-month decrease of 2.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.19%.
Nickel Matte
According to Mysteel surveys of 15 sample projects in Indonesia, the country's nickel matte production in February reached 40,800 tonnes in nickel content, a decrease of 1.53% month-on-month but a substantial increase of 49.73% year-on-year. This production consisted of 34,200 tonnes of high-grade nickel matte and 6,700 tonnes of low-grade nickel matte.
From January to February, Indonesia's cumulative nickel matte production totaled 82,300 tonnes in nickel content, up 39.70% year-on-year.
Looking ahead, Indonesia's nickel matte production for March is estimated at 43,500 tonnes in nickel content, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.56% and a remarkable year-on-year surge of 97.32%. This is expected to include 36,100 tonnes of high-grade nickel matte and 7,400 tonnes of low-grade nickel matte.
Cobalt Sulfate
In February 2026, China's cobalt sulfate production amounted to 18,667 tonnes, representing a month-on-month increase of 4.82% and a year-on-year increase of 2.52%. During February, ternary precursor manufacturers secured new orders, leading to rising demand for cobalt. Additionally, major producers experienced shorter downtime during the Chinese New Year holiday, contributing to the rise in cobalt sulfate production for the month.
In March 2026, China's cobalt sulfate production is expected to reach 17,886 tonnes, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.18% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.16%. In March, downstream demand for cobalt sulfate is anticipated to remain weak. With smelters' operating rates already at historically low levels, the cobalt sulfate production is projected to decline slightly.
Cobalt Chloride
In February 2026, China's cobalt chloride production stood at 8,121 tonnes, marking a month-on-month decrease of 36.26% and a year-on-year decrease of 52.68%. The decline in February was primarily due to reduced output in the downstream Co3O4 sector, which weakened the demand for cobalt chloride. Furthermore, some smelters reduced their operating rates because of raw material shortages, leading to an overall decrease in cobalt chloride production during the month.
In March 2026, China's cobalt chloride production is estimated to be 8,095 tonnes, representing a month-on-month decrease of 0.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 58.64%. The anticipated slight decline in March is attributed to sluggish sales of downstream Co3O4, coupled with ongoing raw material shortages at certain smelters, which is expected to constrain cobalt chloride output.
Lithium Carbonate
According to Mysteel survey, China's lithium carbonate production in February reached 82,500 tonnes, a month-on-month decrease of 16.2%. In February, several spodumene production lines in Sichuan underwent concentrated maintenance, leading to lower operating rates. Some production lines were suspended during the month, resulting in a significant decline in monthly production. A few tolling producers maintained high operating rates due to receiving tolling orders.
China's lithium carbonate production in March is projected to reach 106,700 tonnes, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. Operating rates for spodumene production lines in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Xinjiang and other regions are expected to rise significantly. Most tolling producers are anticipated to maintain high operating rates due to sufficient orders. In the lepidolite segment, limited ore availability is expected to keep operating rates stable.
Lithium Hydroxide
In February, China's lithium hydroxide production reached 23,200 tonnes, down 12.5% month-on-month. The significant decline compared to January was primarily attributed to the Chinese New Year holiday and fewer working days, with manufacturers conducting concentrated maintenance shutdowns and downstream demand also weakening.
According to Mysteel, China's lithium hydroxide production is projected to reach 29,800 tonnes in March, marking a substantial month-on-month increase of 28.4%. In March, smelting operations are expected to fully resume work and production, with leading manufacturers maintaining relatively high operating rates, though some manufacturers may continue to operate at low rates due to limited lithium ore feedstock availability.
Ternary Precursor
China's ternary precursor production in February 2026 amounted to 79,700 tonnes, representing a month-on-month decrease of 19.34% and a year-on-year increase of 28.05%.
Some market players arranged for maintenance shutdowns or slowed the production due to the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday and the traditional off-season, which directly affected the total output for the month. Concurrently, downstream demand slowed, prompting producers to adjust their production plans accordingly to control inventory levels.
In March 2026, China's ternary precursor production is likely to reach 92,500 tonnes, marking a month-on-month increase of 16.13% and a year-on-year increase of 25.85%. During this month, with the resumption of logistics and the return of workers to their posts, producers are restoring normal production. Furthermore, following inventory consumption in February, downstream cathode active material plants and battery manufacturers have rigid restocking needs, driving increased demand for ternary precursors.
Ternary Cathode Material
According to Mysteel's preliminary survey, China's ternary cathode material production in February 2026 stood at 69,000 tonnes, representing a month-on-month decrease of 19.04% and a year-on-year increase of 40.82%.
In February 2026, ternary cathode material production experienced a significant month-on-month decline, primarily due to production halts for maintenance during the CNY holiday and the impact of the traditional off-season.
Looking ahead to March 2026, China's ternary cathode material production is expected to reach 82,400 tonnes, marking an increase of 19.38% MoM and a rising of 34.33% YoY. Entering March, the ternary cathode material production is projected to grow slightly with the release of post-holiday restocking demand from downstream battery cell manufacturers.
Electrolytic Cobalt
In February 2026, China's electrolytic cobalt production was around 260 tonnes, representing a month-on-month decrease of 29.73% and a year-on-year plunge of 95.16%. During February, issues such as high domestic inventory levels of electrolytic cobalt and negative profit margins hardly improved. Compounded by the impact of fewer working days in this month, the total production experienced a decline.
In March 2026, the domestic electrolytic cobalt production is projected to be approximately 295 tonnes, marking an increase of 13.46% MoM but a decrease of 93.42% YoY. While the increase in working days compared to the previous month is expected to have a positive contribution to production, the scope for output recovery remains limited due to the dual constraints of raw material shortages and negative profit margins.
Co3O4
In February 2026, China's Co3O4 production amounted to 7,670 tonnes, representing a month-on-month decrease of 10.61% and a year-on-year increase of 5.21%. The decline in February was primarily attributed to the Chinese New Year holiday, which resulted in fewer production days for smelters. Additionally, LCO battery cell manufacturers partially front-loaded their demand, contributing to the slight dip in Co3O4 output.
In March 2026, China's Co3O4 production is expected to reach 7,720 tonnes, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.65% but a year-on-year decrease of 17.84%. The anticipated production recovery in March is moderate, with production projected to be lower compared to January, with a similar number of production days. This is due to the tight supply of cobalt raw materials in China, prompting smelters to prioritize the fulfillment of long-term contract deliveries.
LCO
China's lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) production stood at 6,010 tonnes in February 2026, a decrease of 45.31% month-on-month and 20.19% year-on-year. February coincided with the Chinese New Year holiday, resulting in a shorter production period, and LCO material plants mainly focused on maintaining stable deliveries.
In March 2026, China's LCO production is projected to reach 8,590 tonnes, representing an increase of 42.93% MoM but a decrease of 11.99% YoY. While production has rebounded compared to February after the CNY holiday, it has remained below pre-holiday levels, primarily due to downstream battery cell manufacturers front-loading demand, resulting in slower purchasing. Market participants are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach, and production continues to be driven by long-term agreement deliveries.
LFP
In February, China's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production amounted to 387,000 tonnes, a decrease of 4.53% compared to the previous month. Most manufacturers maintained normal production schedules during February, with only a few conducting production line maintenance. The fewer working days in February, combined with the Chinese New Year holiday, contributed to the decline in monthly LFP production.
China's LFP production in March is projected to rise to 446,900 tonnes, an increase of 15.48% month-on-month. After the CNY holiday, LFP producers are gradually returning to normal operations, with most expected to operate at full capacity in March. Additionally, increased shipments from certain projects in Sichuan and Hubei are anticipated to push the production schedules to a record high in March.
Iron Phosphate
In February, China's iron phosphate production reached 310,500 tonnes, down 5.30% month-on-month. The decline was primarily attributed to logistics disruptions during the Chinese New Year holiday, as well as maintenance shutdowns at some manufacturers in Central and Southwest China, which contributed to the decline in operating rates.
Anode
In February, China's anode material production reached 296,900 tonnes, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.05% and a month-on-month growth of 4.14%. Chinese anode material enterprises generally exhibited a trend of high operating rates and accelerated capacity expansion, with multiple leading companies running at full capacity. Some companies reported that orders are already scheduled through the end of March, and they have remained busy fulfilling deliveries since resuming work after the Chinese New Year holiday.
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