Beijing sketches China's coal path for 15th Five-Year Plan

"Guided by the "dual carbon goals" – peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 – China will work to achieve a peak in coal consumption [by 2030] while ensuring secure and reliable energy supplies," the blueprint says.

In the power sector, the plan calls for increasing energy efficiency through upgrades in coal-fired power facilities, and by encouraging businesses to lift the use of renewable energy for heating. For steelmaking, it also promotes the wider adoption of electric-arc furnace technology to reduce the industry's consumption of coal and coke.

Based on the document, the role of coal in China will further transition to be the bulwark of the country's energy mix, especially to "secure adequate supplies for major national strategies and programmes".

Concentrated production layout

To optimise China's coal production capacity, the plan assigns four regions – North China's Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, and Northwest China's Shaanxi and Xinjiang – as the country's primary production bases, seeking to lift their combined coal production to over 80% of the country's total by 2030.

According to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, during the first half of this year the total raw coal production of the four regions reached 1.94 billion tonnes, already accounting for around 82% of the country's total.

Construction of advanced coal capacity

The plan also emphasizes the importance of applying advanced mine capacity to stabilize coal supplies. According to the document, by 2030, the combined capacity of coal mines with a capacity of at least 1.2 million tonnes/year should be lifted to 87% of the country's total, while that of 'intelligent mines' should be 75%.

By the end of 2025, the share of mines whose capacity was 1.2 million t/y and above had reached 85% while that of 'intelligent' mines had reached 65% of all mines nationwide, the two agencies noted in a news briefing held on August 10.

To hasten the development of an advanced coal mining industry, the plan also sets restrictions on new projects and expansions of coal mines with capacities of less than 1.2 million t/y in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Xinjiang (except southern Xinjiang). The threshold was set at 600,000 tonnes/year in Northwest China's Ningxia and 300,000 t/y for all remaining regions.

Coal capacity reserve system

By 2030, the total reserve capacity of Chinese coal mines should top 100 million t/y, allowing the country access to flexible and sufficient supplies during emergencies, according to the document.

The concept of a coal capacity reserve system was first raised by the NDRC in December 2023, to help the country cope with coal shortages in extreme situations, as Mysteel Global reported. The initial schedule was to establish a reserve capacity of 300 million t/y by 2030.

Pointers to other aspects of China's future coal industry

Besides providing detailed guidelines regarding coal production and mine construction, the blueprint also outlined a traffic network for coal transportation in the future, optimising the logistics of moving coal from mines in the country's west to the east where demand is high, and from northern regions south where supplies are limited.

Meanwhile, the document also urged improvements in the safety management of mining activities, noting that the government will remain vigilant about overproduction.

Written by Adrian Zhou, zhouwenhaoa@mysteel.com

Edited by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com