15th FYP brings new cycle to Chinese natural gas market

The 15th Five-Year Plan period brings a two-way policy divergence for China's natural gas industry: upstream production support drives steady output growth (133 bcm in H1 2026, +1.60%), while downstream gas-to-electricity transition and new energy substitution cap consumption growth, ushering the industry into a new cycle of rising supply and slowing demand.

From 2025 to 2026, China introduced policies covering oil and gas infrastructure and energy conservation, forming a pattern of upstream support and downstream substitution. Natural gas output reached 133 bcm in H1 2026, up 1.60% year-on-year. However, consumption is under pressure from the "gas-to-electricity" transition and fossil fuel controls,