AD duties, market uptick seen helping Korea's Dongkuk Steel

The slump in Korean construction activity has hit all the country's long-product makers hard, but Dongkuk has arguably suffered more than most. During last year, Dongkuk Steel saw its sales drop 9.2% to KRW 3.2 trillion ($2.39 billion) on year while its operating profit plummeted 42.1% to KRW 59.4 billion.

Last year too, Dongkuk's financial strain had led the mini-mill to completely halt all operations at its huge Incheon rebar plant west of Seoul for 24 days during the peak of summer for the first time in its 71-year history, as Mysteel Global reported.

This year the summer shutdown was less severe, but Dongkuk temporarily halted operations at its No. 1 and No. 2 rolling lines at Incheon between October 1-5 – after Korea's Chuseok festival over September 24–26 – in response to soft rebar demand and high inventory levels. The company plans to "flexibly" adjust operating days for the remainder of this year depending on market conditions, according to Korean sources.

"Due to the summer off-season (for steel demand), the Chuseok holiday, and factory maintenance, Dongkuk Steel's rebar and shaped steel sales volume in the third quarter will be 700,000 tonnes, a 6.5% decrease from the previous quarter, and plate sales are also expected to drop 15.7% to 223,000 tonnes," suggests Park Seong-bong, an analyst with Hana Securities.

However, despite the declines, Park sees Dongkuk's financial condition improving, forecasting the company's Q3 sales higher by a sharp 25.3% from its July-September result last year, and its operating profit also 21.5% higher.

"While the sharp drop in the won-dollar exchange rate is expected to improve profitability, the government's announcement of an extension of anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese H-beams has eased concerns about tariff suspension, which is also seen as a positive outcome," he noted. 

Last month, the Korea Trade Commission under the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced that following a sunset review begun last December, the AD duties of 28.23% to 32.72% imposed on imported Chinese H-beams since March 2021 would remain in place.  The original suit had been filed by Dongkuk Steel and Hyundai Steel and the two had argued for the measure to remain, warning that dumping may reoccur were the penalties to be lifted.

Hana Securities' Park believes that despite Dongkuk's stoppage for maintenance during this month's first week, the mini-mill's combined sales of rebar and shaped steel such as H-beams during October-December will rise by nearly 8% from last quarter to 754,000 tonnes.

Moreover, recent analyses suggesting the construction sector has 'bottomed out' hint at a delayed recovery in steel demand, local daily ChosunBiz observed earlier this week. It quoted Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport data showing that nationwide housing starts from January to August totalled 156,396 units, up 10.8% on year, with those in Seoul alone surging 41.1% to 20,679 units. Nationwide housing presales also jumped 35.3% to 145,314 units during the same period, it noted.

Given that steel purchasing and shipments usually begin several months after building construction has started, Korean long product makers such as Dongkuk should enjoy a pickup in business this quarter, Mysteel Global notes.

Written by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com

Edited by Alyssa Ren, rentingting@mysteel.com

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