Japan's total steel exports fall 7% YoY in Sept

The declines shouldn't really surprise given the weakness of the global economy from the Middle East turmoil and the surge in energy prices. China's exports gaining in markets important to the Japanese mills was also a factor. In September, China's exports of finished steel worldwide reached 10.49 million tonnes, up by 0.26% on year, as Mysteel Global reported – only slightly less than Japan's six-month April-September total.

The concern for the Japanese steelmakers represented by the January-September export result is that annualized out, it gives a calendar 2026 total of 28.66 million tonnes – far below last year's total of 30.39 million tonnes and at least a five-year low.

The September-only statistics contained a few causes of stress too. For example, exports of ordinary carbon steel that month at 1.63 million tonnes were down by 5.4% on year and marked the third month in a row where shipments were lower on year.

Though exports to South Korea, Japan's largest carbon steel export market, rose by 6% on year to 215,000 tonnes in September, those to China plummeted by 19% to 92,600 tonnes and those to Thailand were lower by 8% at 191,900 tonnes, the JISF numbers show. Exports to the United States in September were three times higher than in September last year but totaled only 69,500 tonnes.

HRC and the Korean connection

Another unwelcome finding was that Japan's global exports of wide-width hot rolled coils (HRC) in September fell by 12.2% on year to 784,700 tonnes, the third consecutive monthly on-year fall and the first time since February that the total had dipped below 800,000 tonnes. Hot coils are by far the single-largest Japanese steel export item so the continuing decline can't be ignored.

Japanese sources cited heavy rains and typhoons during September as contributing to the reduction in shipments. For example, the landfall of Typhoon Dujuan in eastern Japan on September 21 had prompted Nippon Steel to temporarily suspend all upstream and downstream operations at its Kimitsu works in Chiba, while JFE Steel said that damage to its East Japan Works, also in Chiba, had lost it 600,000 tonnes of production, as reported.

Regular maintenance on the hot strip mill at the Oita area of Nippon Steel's Kyushu works had also impacted hot coil supply, according to Tekko Shimbun.

During September, Japan's HRC exports to Thailand and China both fell while those to the U.S. were notable for totaling 35,060 tonnes – since the U.S. bought no Japanese HRC in September last year.

But perhaps more significant was the total of 90,700 tonnes of the wide-width HRC Japan had exported to Korea in September. The total was lower by 31% from August but higher by 9.2% on year.

On June 23, the Korean government formally applied anti-dumping penalties on imports of Japanese and Chinese HR products of up to 33.43%, as Mysteel Global reported. However, nine exporting mills – three Japanese and six Chinese – had made minimum import price commitments (MIPs) with Seoul, agreeing to export at a price determined by the Korean government in exchange for an export quota free of AD penalties. Nippon Steel and JFE Steel had said they planned to continue exporting to Korea under MIP conditions.

This would explain why Japan's Korea-bound HRC shipments between April and September totaled 680,900 tonnes – higher by a sizzling 38% on year – despite dumping duties being in place.

Another reason could be that for about 10 days from mid-October, Hyundai Steel had conducted maintenance on the No.2 hot strip mill at its Dangjin works, south of Seoul. The No.2 HSM has a capacity of 3.5 million tonnes/year. During last month too, POSCO overhauled the 5.2 million t/y No.3 HSM at its Gwangyang works on Korea's southern coast for about 20 days in October.

Going forward the Japanese mills – and Chinese mills including Baosteel, Ansteel, and Benxi Steel that also agreed to the MIP arrangement – will likely be closely watching South Korea's HRC market.

Local industry daily Steel & Metal News reports that Hyundai Steel is considering taking the No.1 HSM at Dangjin offline from end-November until January for an overhaul. The No. 1 HSM has a 3 million t/y capacity.

In addition, POSCO plans to upgrade the No.1 HSM at Gwangyang from end-November to next January. The No.1 HSM at Gwangyang has a capacity of 6 million t/y. In parallel, POSCO is expected to begin repairs on its No. 2 blast furnace at Gwangyang from mid-November, followed by scheduled maintenance on the works' three other blast furnaces in succession, SMN notes.

Hyundai and POSCO will be building up HRC stocks ahead of the planned outages but there's a chance domestic supply could still tighten, allowing the Japanese (and Chinese) mills to make up any shortfall.

Japan's steel exports to key markets April-September 2026 (selected)

Unit: tonnes

Source: JISF

Written by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com

Edited by Alyssa Ren, rentingting@mysteel.com