Middle East LNG shortfall of 9.37 mt hits China; import costs to rise 21% in 2026

In 2026, the Middle East conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sharply cut LNG supplies from Qatar and the UAE. China's imports from the two countries fell to 5.06 million tonnes in January-September, down 65% YoY. China's average LNG import cost is expected to rise to $12.07/MMBtu in 2026, up 21.1% year-on-year, and further to $12.80/MMBtu in Q1 2027 (+43%).

In 2026, the Middle East conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sharply cut LNG supplies from Qatar and the UAE. China's imports from the two countries fell to 5.06 million tonnes in January–September, down 65% year-on-year. The Middle East shortfall reached 9.37 million tonnes, the largest