Podcast - China LNG market weekly take-away: domestic prices ease as high prices curb demand and inventories build

China's LNG prices eased in the week of October 30th to November 5th, as high prices held back buyers and plant inventories built up. Ex-plant prices fell about two percent, and the profit margin for Inner Mongolia plants shrank to roughly 90 yuan per tonne from around 460 the week before. Imports stayed under heavy pressure, with the spot import margin at around negative 4,600 yuan per tonne. A further decline is expected in the upcoming week.

Key takeaways:

• Producers lost pricing power. Slow shipments pushed plant inventories up about two percent to roughly 540,000 tonnes, and ex-plant prices slipped to around 7,350 yuan per tonne. Higher feedstock gas auction prices squeezed profit margins at the same time.
• Imports remain far above domestic prices. Landed spot cargoes cost about 12,600 yuan per tonne against terminal prices near 7,950 yuan per tonne, even after Dutch TTF fell around 11 percent. LNG also has no cost edge over pipeline gas for industrial users, and open arbitrage windows fell by one to five.
• Prices are forecast to fall in the upcoming week, with ex-plant levels moving toward 7,200 yuan per tonne. Plants are returning from maintenance and city gas restocking is winding down, so plant inventories are expected to keep rising.
  

For the full analysis and data behind today's discussion, contact us at inquiries@mysteel.com for a trial read of the latest China LNG Market Weekly Report by Mysteel OilChem and GL Consulting's China Natural Gas Market Monthly Outlook Report.

For more market intelligence on China's LNG market, including supply-demand dynamics, pricing trends, and industry developments, visit mysteel.net.

Listen to the full episode on Spotify now: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6pG0l0NhL1Q1sEkZwbEdZT?si=0M1wXZZ7TX20DoZ5DmDaHg&nd=1&dlsi=01f267a29003498e