China falls, Turkey rises: aluminum bars and rods exports reshape global trade

China, still the largest player, endured the steepest fall. Its export volume slipped 21.09 per cent, dropping from 520,144.8 tonnes in H1 2024 to 410,485 tonnes in H1 2025. The financial blow was even harder, as net trade value fell by 27.4 per cent - from USD 1.8 billion to USD1.328 billion.

Germany too found itself weighed down by weaker flows. Exports through May 2025 came to 107,240.4 tonnes, from 134,596.5 tonnes shipped in May 2024, a contraction of 20.29 per cent. The country's export revenues followed the same path, tumbling 15.6 per cent from USD 932 million in H1 2024 to USD 787 million in H1 2025.

Spain, while not immune to volume declines, managed to squeeze more value out of its shipments. Its exports eased by 9.94 per cent, from 144,865.7 tonnes to 130,393.78 tonnes, but net trade value inched upward by 3.1 per cent, rising from USD 673 million to USD 694 million.

Turkey, in contrast, displayed resilience. Shipments grew 5.18 per cent year on year, climbing from 182,392 tonnes in June 2024 to 191,846 tonnes in June 2025. Revenues surged by 10.17 per cent, moving from USD 826 million to USD 910 million, underscoring the country's growing prominence.

The US posted only a minor setback. Volumes edged down 3.42 per cent, from 77,387 tonnes to 74,721 tonnes, while values remained steady, even ticking up from USD 506 million to USD 516 million.

Italy, however, endured one of the toughest blows in Europe. Its shipments fell 15.12 per cent to 81,717.41 tonnes from 96,294.12 tonnes, and export value dropped by 14.04 per cent, sliding from USD 477 million to USD 410 million.

What was the market and export route?

Export routes reflect the strategic positioning of each country. Germany's shipments stretch across the globe, reaching Albania, Argentina, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Australia, Belgium, Austria, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, India, Finland, France, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, and Serbia. Among these, China, the United States, and Serbia stand out as fast-growing buyers.

Spain's exports remain largely anchored within Europe, supplying fellow EU members and nearby nations. Turkey casts a wider net, trading robustly with partners across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and maintaining especially strong ties with Germany and Spain.

The US continues to serve its North American neighbours, with Mexico and Canada at the top of the list, though its exports also reach into Europe and Asia where manufacturing demand remains steady. Italy's flows remain EU-centered, led by Germany, France, and Spain.

Meanwhile, China commands the broadest global footprint, sending aluminum bars and rods to Mexico, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Nigeria, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Vietnam - a truly global presence that spans Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas.

Supply, demand, and pricing picture

Production of non-alloy aluminum bars, rods, and profiles eased globally in 2024, declining by about 3.1 per cent from the previous year. The fall was driven largely by stricter environmental rules and production caps in China, which continue to ripple into 2025.

Demand from the automotive, aerospace, and construction sectors - the backbone of aluminum consumption - showed modest growth in H1 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. At the same time, average export prices sagged by about 7 per cent in 2024 compared with 2023, pushing revenues lower even when volumes were stable.

Trade policy has only added complexity. Tariff disputes, particularly between the US and China, redirected flows and acted as a drag on growth. While global supply chains that had been battered by the pandemic began to recover in early 2025, improvements were uneven. Turkey benefitted from smoother logistics and reduced costs, while other exporters remained vulnerable to unpredictable freight and input expenses.

Structural shifts and outlook

Sustainability is now more than a buzzword; it is reshaping the aluminum trade itself. Producers in China and Europe have been pressed to cut emissions, leading to heavy investment in cleaner technologies. These transitions often constrained output in the short term but are laying the groundwork for future competitive advantage. Buyers, in turn, are showing a clear preference for high-performance aluminum products made with sustainable practices, changing the very composition of exports.

Geopolitics has also left its imprint. Shifts in alliances and new trade agreements through 2024 and 2025 altered flows and encouraged exporters to diversify partners while leaning into regional markets. Raw material and energy costs, meanwhile, remained volatile, with bauxite, alumina, and electricity all swinging in price and influencing competitiveness in a sector that is notoriously energy intensive.

The first half of 2025 thus revealed a market in transition: China, Germany, and Italy are navigating downturns; Spain is finding value in fewer shipments; Turkey is strengthening its role; and the United States is holding steady. With sustainability, geopolitics, and cost volatility reshaping the rules, the aluminum bars and rods trade is being refashioned into a market where adaptability will define winners and laggards in the years ahead.