India leads aluminum scrap imports with $1.96 billion in H1 2025

The US has surged into second place on the back of tariff-driven demand, Germany has held steady despite industry headwinds, and Thailand has entered the top five, displacing South Korea.

India leads the market

India imported aluminum scrap worth USD 1,961 million in the first six months of 2025. That compares with USD 1,589 million during the same period in 2024. The increase of more than 23 per cent lifted India's share of the top five importers from 30.8 per cent to 37.3 per cent. Volumes rose as well, climbing from 814,004 tonnes to 875,466 tonnes, a gain of 7.5 per cent.

Much of the growth came early in the year. If we compare H1 2025 and H1 2024, January imports were up by more than 76 per cent, February by nearly 32 per cent, and March by almost 29 per cent. By June, volumes eased only slightly, down 1.4 per cent, suggesting the surge was stabilising.

The rise comes amid policy debate at home. The Material Recycling Association of India (MRAI) has called for the removal of the 2.5 per cent import duty on scrap, saying it inflates costs and weakens recycling competitiveness. India depends heavily on high-grade imported scrap to offset domestic shortages.

At the same time, importers must meet strict licensing and environmental requirements set by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change and Pollution Control Boards. Even so, demand and industry lobbying for tariff relief have helped push India into the top spot.

China slips back

China, once the dominant importer, saw its position weaken sharply. In H1 2024, the country bought aluminum scrap valued at USD 1,917 million, about 37 per cent of the top five, with import volumes of 725,158 tonnes. By H1 2025, that figure had collapsed to USD 453 million, or 8.6 per cent, with volumes cut to 312,954 tonnes.

Monthly comparisons tell the same story: imports in January and March dropped more than 67 per cent, while April fell over 70 per cent year-on-year. The fall reflects several policy and market changes.

At the start of 2025, Beijing imposed a 1.5 per cent tariff on selected scrap categories and introduced tighter quality checks. Key suppliers such as Thailand and Malaysia added their own restrictions, while China accelerated investment in domestic recycling.

The effect has been to reroute shipments through Hong Kong SAR, creating reporting gaps. Some official data still points to a modest 7–8 per cent overall rise in China's scrap imports, but the way volumes are now recorded explains why China appears far smaller in global trade summaries.

US imports accelerate

The US recorded the most dramatic growth. In H1 2024, it imported just USD 210 million of aluminum scrap, or 4 per cent of the top five. By H1 2025, that figure had jumped to USD 980 million, almost 19 per cent of the total. Volumes rose from 108,528 tonnes to 415,798 tonnes, a surge of 283 per cent.

Month by month, the increase was steady, with January up nearly 45 per cent and June more than 54 per cent compared with the previous year.

The change is tied to tariff policy and the decline of US smelting capacity. Tariffs on aluminum, first imposed in 2018, were raised to 25 per cent in February 2025 and doubled to 50 per cent in June. Later in the year, another 407 aluminum - related products were added to the tariff list. These moves made primary aluminum imports more costly, while scrap remained largely unaffected, boosting demand for recycled metal.

US is in need of aluminum scrap as its smelting industry continues to shrink. From 23 plants in 2000, only four remain active in 2025, operated by firms such as Alcoa and Century Aluminum. The closure of the New Madrid smelter in Missouri in early 2024 - which once supplied almost a third of US primary aluminum - underscored this decline. High energy prices and environmental rules have made restarts uneconomic, forcing manufacturers to turn increasingly to scrap imports.

Germany holds its ground

Germany maintained its position as the third - largest importer. Purchases eased from USD 919 million in H1 2024 to USD 851 million in H1 2025, although the 2025 number reflects only January through May. That translates into a small drop in share from 17.8 per cent to 16.2 per cent.

Volumes slipped slightly, from 526,873 tonnes to 446,476 tonnes over five months, effectively stable once adjusted. Monthly figures show strong growth early in 2025, with January up 23 per cent, February up 12 per cent and March up 40 per cent, before levelling off in April and May.

But the industry faces structural challenges. Scrap is flowing out of Europe to the US, drawn by tariff advantages, creating shortages at home. Competition from Turkey - where producers benefit from cheaper energy and access to Russian supply - has undercut German competitiveness.

At the same time, weak demand in construction and electric vehicles, coupled with high energy and inflationary costs, has further weighed on imports. Industry groups warn that unless the EU introduces export restrictions, Europe's recycling sector and circular economy goals are at risk.

Thailand joins the top five

South Korea, which imported USD 830 million of aluminum scrap in H1 2024, dropped out of the top five this year. Thailand entered the list with imports of USD 259 million, or 4.9 per cent.

Volumes rose by about 5.8 per cent compared with the same months in 2024. January 2025 saw 91,702 tonnes, and February set a record at 149,630 tonnes, though it also marked a 6.3 per cent year-on-year decline due to customs enforcement.

Thailand's role as a regional hub has been growing. Scrap is shipped in, processed, and re-exported as high-quality ingots to markets such as China, Taiwan and South Korea. Much of this reflects Chinese and Japanese companies shifting operations to Southeast Asia to get around China's tighter import rules.

Why scrap matters?

Aluminum scrap has become critical to global supply chains. Recycling saves up to 95 per cent of the energy needed to produce primary aluminum from ore, and unlike other materials, aluminum can be recycled endlessly without loss of quality. Worldwide, about 76 per cent of aluminum is recycled, with Europe leading at 81 per cent.

With demand for aluminum expected to double by 2050, between 50 per cent and 60 per cent of supply will have to come from scrap. The market, valued at USD 110 billion in 2024, is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 9.8 per cent to USD 11.54 billion by 2030. Volumes are projected to climb from 38 million tonnes in 2024 to 57 million tonnes by 2030 according to sources.

Policy and outlook

Trade policies will continue to shape flows. In India, debate over the 2.5 per cent duty remains unresolved: recyclers want it abolished to cut costs, while others argue for higher tariffs on low-quality scrap to protect local processors. In Europe, rising exports to the US have left recyclers short of material, driving up prices and putting nearly one million jobs at risk. The EU is now weighing export fees or restrictions to keep scrap within the bloc.

Looking ahead, Asia-Pacific is expected to drive growth, supported by China and Southeast Asia, while Europe and the Americas will benefit from mature recycling systems and strong circular economy policies. Advances in refining, sorting, and traceability technologies will enhance recycled aluminum quality, expanding its use in industries such as automotive and aerospace.