Mysteel survey: Market Performance of Oilseed During the 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday

Imported Soybeans: During the Chinese New Year holiday, CBOT soybean prices trended higher, with the closing price at 1153.75 cents per bushel as of February 20, an increase of 0.35% during the holiday period. The main reasons were strong and record-breaking soybean crush demand in the United States in January (NOPA data showed a year-on-year increase of 10.6%), coupled with the EPA' s plan to submit the 2026 biodiesel blending proposal, leading to optimistic crush expectations. Additionally, the market anticipated an increase in Chinese purchases, and the proposed meeting between Chinese and US leaders in April strengthened export confidence.

However, the 2025/26 soybean harvest in Brazil has already exceeded 20%, and although February export expectations were revised down from 11.71 million tons to 11.46 million tons, they remain at a historically high level. The concentrated arrival of South American soybeans on the market has led to a global supply surplus, putting some downward pressure on soybean prices. Furthermore, while the US Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration' s tariff policy, the subsequent announcement of a 10% global temporary tariff (later increased to 15%) introduced trade uncertainty, boosting safe-haven sentiment for agricultural products. The USDA Outlook Forum projected 2026/27 US soybean planted area to increase to 85 million acres, limiting upside potential.

In the short term, with support from cost fundamentals and trade policy uncertainties, CBOT soybean prices may maintain a high-level range-bound movement. Attention should be paid to the March USDA report and weather changes in South America.

Domestic non-gmo Soybeans: During the Chinese New Year, activity in the domestic soybean market dropped to a standstill as traders and downstream enterprises were on holiday, leading to a market "shutdown." Prices remained generally stable overall, but price differentials based on protein content and variety remained significant, with prices for high-quality, high-protein soybeans holding firm. Post-holiday, market focus will shift to the recovery of terminal demand and the selling mentality of farmers in production areas.

There were basically no quotes from grassroots sources in the Northeast market. Traders are confident about the future market outlook. Coupled with expectations of restocking by enterprises after the holiday, there is a bullish sentiment in the market given the tight supply situation. Quotes from the Harbin market in Heilongjiang for first-grade, 39% protein medium-sized grain tower-loaded soybeans were Yuan 4600/tonne. In the Baoqing market in Shuangyashan, Heilongjiang, similar first-grade, 39% protein beans were quoted at Yuan 4440/tonne. The Futonne market in Jiamusi, Heilongjiang, also quoted Yuan 4440/tonne for the same specifications. In the Nehe market in Qiqihar, Heilongjiang, first-grade, 41% protein beans were quoted at Yuan 4700/tonne. The Nenjiang market in Heihe, Heilongjiang, quoted Yuan 4740/tonne for 41% protein beans, and the Hailun market in Suihua, Heilongjiang, quoted Yuan 4700/tonne for 41% protein beans.

Market activity in southern soybean production areas was sluggish, with trading essentially at a standstill and few quotes during the holiday. For miscellaneous beans with 42-43% protein in southern production areas, the price in Baishan, Huaibei, Anhui was Yuan 5600/tonne; in Zhoukou, Henan, it was Yuan 5400/tonne.

In consumer regions, enterprises engaged in minimal restocking activities during the holiday, primarily consuming existing inventory, awaiting the resumption of work and production after the tenth day of the new year. In the Guangdong consumer market, the main expected loading price for first-grade, third-class quality soybeans from Northeast China with over 39.5% protein was Yuan 5300/tonne. In the Sichuan market, the quote for equivalent beans was Yuan 5500/tonne.

Rapeseed: Rapeseed prices saw minor adjustments during the Chinese New Year hoiday. Specifically, in Hubei, loaded price for clean rapeseed with 43% oil content was Yuan 6300-6400/tonne. In the Sichuan market, prices for rapeseed with 39-40% oil content ranged from Yuan 6010-6260/tonne. In the Anhui market, the mainstream price for clean rapeseed was Yuan 6200-6300/tonne, with 42-43% oil content. In the Jiangsu market, the mainstream price for clean rapeseed was Yuan 6300-6400/tonne, with 41.5% oil content. Market trading activity was generally light. Domestic rapeseed prices remained stable during the holiday, influenced by multiple factors including supply and demand, market conditions, and policies. Currently, winter rapeseed has not yet reached the market, with supply mainly consisting of older crop, keeping total volume stable. Crush plants were mostly shut down for maintenance, leading to weak crushing demand, and ample pre-holiday procurement meant no concentrated purchasing. Light market trading and low capital participation during the holiday period resulted in a lack of price movement drivers. These factors collectively supported the stable operation of rapeseed prices during the Chinese New Year.