China's refined copper output decreased by 4.66% year on year and by 0.55% month on month, reaching 1.1388 million tonnes in July 2026, according to Mysteel's survey. From January to July 2026, China's refined copper output increased by 3.29% year on year to 8.0796 million tonnes, according to Mysteel's survey of 60 sample smelting enterprises in China. Looking ahead to August 2026, China's refined copper output is projected to reach 1.1445 million tonnes, marking a 3.65% year-on-year decrease but a 0.5% month-on-month increase.
The sustained tightening of raw material supply was the core driver behind the month-on-month and year-on-year declines in refined copper output in July, with sample producers losing around 11,000 tonnes of production due to raw material issues. On one hand, the tightness in copper concentrate supply was extreme. By early August, spot TC for imported concentrate had fallen below -$150/dmt. At the same time, declining concentrate grades also curtailed output. On the other hand, policy impacts on the domestic scrap sector led to persistent shortages of tax-invoiced copper scrap, leaving smelters also short of supplementing raw materials. Maintenance also continued to weigh on production, with seven smelters still undergoing maintenance in July. As a result, China's July refined copper output came in below expectations.
Looking ahead to August, raw material shortages remain the main constraint preventing a meaningful recovery. According to Mysteel's survey, sample producers alone are set to lose roughly 20,400 tonnes of output in August due to raw material issues, nearly double the 11,000-tonne loss in July, and this figure does not yet include production adjustments from routine maintenance. Although only two smelters have planned maintenance in August, the restart of previously idled capacity will take time, and with raw material supply staying tight, extended maintenance cannot be ruled out. China's refined copper output in August is therefore expected to remain low and decline markedly year on year.
Data source: Mysteel
Written by Zhaorui Cui, cuizhaorui@mysteel.com
Edited by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
