On September 8, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for October delivery rose by 0.47% by the end of Tuesday's daytime trading and increased by 0.8% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,645/tonne as of 1 a.m. Wednesday, September 9, 2026.
Two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 2.54 bps to 4.3915%, trading broadly higher; around 20:42 Beijing time it staged a V-shaped reversal. The 30-year yield rose 0.95 bps to 5.2518%. Among TIPS: the 10-year fell 0.90 bps to 2.4170%, the 2-year fell 2.46 bps to 1.8602%, and the 30-year fell 0.56 bps to 2.9710%.
Overall U.S. yields moved higher, with the front end spiking and the 2-year showing a intraday V-shape reversal -- a sign the market is revising its earlier "Fed will cut soon" expectations, now leaning toward a possible September hike and a higher-for-longer short-term policy rate. That is a macro backdrop that skews bearish for aluminum: rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar raise the carrying and financing cost of dollar-priced metals, dampen speculative and allocation demand, and a firmer real-rate outlook also erodes the inflation premium in industrial metals.
That said, aluminum still has fundamental support -- low global and Chinese ingot inventories, seasonal demand recovery as the peak season begins, a domestic capacity ceiling, and slow Middle East restarts. So in the near term aluminum prices are prone to profit-taking pullbacks and struggle to break higher, but are unlikely to enter a one-sided deep selloff on Treasuries alone. The real direction will be set by the FOMC message, the dollar path, and aluminum's own inventory/demand confirmation.
On September 8, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,460/tonne, up Yuan 50/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,630/tonne, up Yuan 60/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,330/tonne, up Yuan 70/tonne from the previous day.
Fundamentally, domestic smelters are already running near the capacity ceiling, and overseas restarts remain behind schedule, therefore supply headroom is thin. Visible inventories at home and in LME warehouses keep drifting lower with no sign of a meaningful restock. Alumina and bauxite costs stay sticky, holding a firm floor under ingot. Downstream orders into the autumn window are steady -- PV frames, extrusion and NEV sheet holding up, but high prices keep buyers on need-only purchasing, conversion margins under mild pressure.
Yesterday morning's session saw SHFE aluminum grind higher in a range-bound uptrend. In the Central Plains market, traders' inventories edged up and held near 160,000 tonnes. Spot basis was unchanged; holders slowed their selling pace, market availability tightened somewhat, and offers hovered around the SMM average. As aluminum prices extended gains, "fear-of-highs" sentiment built, buyers focused on need-based procurement on dips, while traders stepped in and prioritized cheap tonnage. Trading sentiment cooled a touch, with overall volumes mediocre.
In the South China market, the basis found firm footing after retracing to a premium of roughly Yuan 180/tonne against the front-month contract. The monthly average price printed about Yuan 300/tonne below the spot screen. Physical merchants pushed volume to lock in cash, while takers leaned into the softness and lifted on the discount. Spot-market activity turned more constructive as a result, and overall deals came through fair to workable.
In summary, SHFE aluminum held firm and pushed higher into the overnight session, with spot premiums bifurcating regionally. The macro tape is a bearish overlay, but tight supply, lean inventories and sticky input costs keep a hard floor under the tape. Near-term range-bound with topside capped by rate jitters and buyer fatigue, downside contained by physical tightness.
