On September 9, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for October delivery rose by 0.45% by the end of Wednesday's daytime trading and increased by 0.37% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,650/tonne as of 1 a.m. Thursday, September 10, 2026.
On the macro side, the U.S. Treasury's long-bond buyback was tripled in size, but the $6 billion fell short of expectations and Treasuries sold off again: the announced $6 billion long-end Treasury repurchase plan, while double the previous cap of up to $3 billion per operation, still came in below the market's $8–10 billion expectation, and yields rose immediately after the announcement.
LME copper and NYMEX copper both hit record highs, driven by tariff expectations and supply shortages -- copper prices in the London and New York markets simultaneously refreshed historical records, touching $14,858.5 per tonne and $6.894 per pound respectively.
For aluminum, the rate-driven repricing from the disappointing Treasury buyback and the resulting rise in long-end yields poses a valuation headwind, but the supply shortage, inventory mismatch and energy-inflation trade reflected in copper's record rally will spill over to aluminum.
At the same time, power prices, alumina costs, overseas smelter disruptions and the green-aluminum premium all provide a floor, so aluminum is more likely to track the bullish non-ferrous sentiment and trade firm at elevated levels than to be dragged down solely by long-end rates.
On September 9, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,560/tonne, up Yuan 100/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,800/tonne, up Yuan 170/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,430/tonne, up Yuan 100/tonne from the previous day.
Today SHFE aluminum tracked the broadly firmer non-ferrous complex. The aluminum sector retains fundamental support: although pressured by expectations of overseas supply growth, overseas inventories remain low and the domestic market is still drawing down even in the seasonal slack. SHFE aluminum is thus biased to trade firmly above 24,000 yuan in the near term.
Yesterday morning, SHFE aluminum traded sideways in a narrow range. Traders' inventories in the Central Plains market were unchanged, holding near 160,000 tonnes. As the basis widened, holders were active in selling at elevated levels to cash out, keeping spot supply abundant. Aluminum prices continued their upward trend, fueling persistent "fear-of-highs" among downstream buyers, who purchased only on dips to cover rigid demand. Traders entered the market, prioritizing low-priced discounted sources. Trading sentiment cooled somewhat, with overall turnover mediocre.
In the South China market, mainstream sellers quoted parity for most of the early and mid-session, with a small amount offered at a Yuan 10/tonne discount. Market caution was heavy, making parity-level transactions difficult to execute. In the late session, the volume of spot metal available at a Yuan 10/tonne discount increased, and rigid-demand buyers stepped in on dips, resulting in overall mediocre turnover.
With fixed-price term contracts approaching their delivery dates, the spot price was running nearly Yuan 500/tonne above the monthly average contract price. Although sellers were keen to offload material and spot supply remained ample, the market anticipated a stronger basis, keeping spot offers relatively firm. Downstream factories purchased passively to meet rigid demand, and overall trading was unremarkable.
In summary, SHFE aluminum edged higher, with the most-active Oct contract closing around Yuan 24,650/tonne. Macro headwinds from a disappointing $6 billion U.S. Treasury long-bond buyback pushed yields up, but copper's record rally on tariff and supply fears spilled over to support the broader non-ferrous complex.
Domestically, spot prices rose Yuan100–170/tonne across major regions. Despite widening basis and seller eagerness, downstream "fear-of-highs" and tepid trading kept physical turnover mediocre. With low overseas inventories, continued domestic destocking in the off-season, and cost support, SHFE aluminum is biased to trade firmly above Yuan 24,000/tonne in the near term.
