On September 11, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for October delivery dropped by 1.38% by the end of Friday's daytime trading and decreased by 0.79% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,000/tonne as of 1 a.m. Monday, September 14, 2026.
Under these circumstances, the macro backdrop is bearish for aluminum prices in the near term, albeit with some cushioning. First, a divergence in risk premia: the escalation in Yemen–Red Sea tensions has raised geopolitical risk, strengthening expectations of disruptions to crude oil and seaborne freight; this underpins the cost side (fuel, alumina shipping) and reinforces inflation stickiness, while safe-haven sentiment weighs on risk assets, pulling aluminum prices in both directions. Yet Iran's statement that it is "not in a state of war" with Saudi Arabia tempers expectations of a wider conflict, making it hard for the risk premium to be sustained, so any impulse-driven boost to aluminum is limited.
Second, a hawkish repricing on the dollar and rates: the US August core CPI came in at 0.3% MoM, above expectations; interest-rate swaps show traders' pricing of a 25bp Fed hike in September rising from 69% before the data to 89%, with two hikes by year-end now priced in. Higher US Treasury yields and a firmer dollar weigh on the valuation of dollar-denominated base metals, exerting more direct pressure on LME aluminum. SHFE aluminum is cushioned by the RMB exchange rate and domestic market dynamics, so its downside may be more limited than that of overseas contracts.
On September 11, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,240/tonne, down Yuan 320/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,440/tonne, down Yuan 360/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,130/tonne, down Yuan 300/tonne from the previous day.
Fundamentals remain well-supported. On the supply side, there is little room left for domestic output growth. Traders' inventories of aluminum ingots continued to draw down, falling below 800,000 tonnes, while operating rates across aluminum fabrication sectors edged higher, signaling a gradual materialization of the peak consumption season. LME inventories hover at low levels, and capacity restarts in the Middle East and new project ramp-ups in Southeast Asia are both progressing slowly, leaving a persistent global supply-demand deficit.
Last Friday's morning session saw SHFE aluminum fluctuate upward. Traders' inventories in the Central Plains market decreased, holding around 150,000 tonnes. As the basis strengthened, holders adopted a firm pricing stance and slowed shipments, tightening the circulation of spot supply. With aluminum prices pulling back sharply, downstream enterprises seized the lower prices to replenish inventories ahead of the weekend, increasing their purchasing appetite. Traders also entered the market, prioritizing lower-priced cargoes, leading to fairly active trading overall.
In the South China market, holders initially offered at parity, but no spot transactions were concluded. By mid-to-late session, a small amount of material was offered at a discount, with average transaction volumes recorded for these discounted spot deals. Despite the sharp correction in absolute prices, spot circulation did not tighten noticeably. Traders primarily sourced cargoes out of rigid demand to fulfill contracts, while buying interest from downstream fabricators improved slightly. Overall trading was moderate.
Overall, expectations of a near-term macro headwind from tightening liquidity are dominating the market, driving a short-term oscillating correction in aluminum prices. However, solid fundamental support limits further downside.
