Copper prices continued falling in China's futures and spot markets on September 15, while slightly rebounded at the LME amid generally bullish market sentiment. With the fundamentals supportive and macro influences mixed, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at elevated levels in the near term.
China's refined copper spot trading saw a limited increase on September 15. Due to the futures contract rollover and wide near-month backwardation structure, downstream procurement remained constrained. However, continuously falling copper prices and the arrivals of imported refined copper supported overall transactions. Spot premiums generally rebounded across major markets, except for Guangdong where holders actively lowered prices to secure orders.
Scrap transactions in China also dropped on September 15, as declining copper prices narrowed the refined-scrap copper price spread. Upstream traders still had some previously high-priced orders pending delivery, combined with limited circulating copper scrap in the market, further intensifying cautious sentiment. Downstream scrap processors mostly maintained need-based procurement. However, with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, restocking plans are gradually being put on the agenda, and purchasing sentiment may pick up toward the end of September.
Trading in China's copper semis markets remained generally weak on September 15, due to the contract rollover boosting market caution. As the holidays approach, end-user enterprises have recently increased bargain-hunting restocking, though caution persisted and end-use demand recovery remained slow. Looking ahead, pre-holiday restocking demand may be brought forward and lead to consumption recovery, but its sustainability and actual consumption need to be monitored.
