On September 16, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for October delivery increased by 0.58% by the end of Wednesday's daytime trading and rose by 0.52% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,260/tonne as of 1 a.m. Thursday, September 17, 2026.
The US Fed's first rate hike in three years, together with a signal that one more hike is likely this year, creates an overall "macro headwind, fundamentals providing a floor" effect on aluminum prices. On one hand, the hike pushes up the US dollar and Treasury yields, weighing on dollar-denominated LME aluminum, raises inventory-holding and financing costs across the supply chain, and dampens demand expectations for US housing, autos and durable goods; coupled with a hawkish dot plot and delayed rate-cut expectations, the valuation of the broader non-ferrous metals complex comes under short-term pressure.
On the other hand, aluminum is still supported by China's capacity ceiling, elevated alumina and power costs, ongoing inventory drawdowns, and restocking ahead of the "Golden September, Silver October" peak season, so the tight supply-demand backdrop has not changed. As a result, aluminum prices are more likely to trade in high-level consolidation, pulling back but unlikely to fall sharply, with LME aluminum more exposed to overseas liquidity shocks and SHFE aluminum relatively more resilient.
On September 16, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,160/tonne, up Yuan 20/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,370/tonne, up Yuan 40/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,090/tonne, up Yuan 30/tonne from the previous day.
Yesterday's morning session saw SHFE aluminum trade firmer as inventories in the Central Plains market continued to draw down, holding near 140,000 tonnes. The basis kept strengthening, with holders controlling shipment pace and spot supply tightening across the market. As prices extended gains, downstream buyers turned more cautious, restocking remained largely need-driven at lower levels, while traders stepped in to pick up cheaper metal, keeping overall trading active with decent spot turnover.
In South China, aluminum ingot inventories de-stocked more than expected, down ~50,000 tonnes day on day. With monthly-average contract terms still loss-making, holders tried to hold prices but faced weak acceptance of flat-premium-and-above quotes; they were forced to trim offers to secure deals. End-market buyers stuck to essential replenishment, and overall turnover stayed fair.
Overall, SHFE aluminum closed the overnight session at Yuan 24,260/tonne, with spot prices up Yuan 20-40/tonne across three regions, a clear bout of resilience against the macro headwind of the US Fed's first rate hike in three years. While LME aluminum stays capped by a firmer dollar and the hawkish dot plot, SHFE aluminum is holding firm on China's capacity ceiling, sticky input costs, faster-than-expected inventory drawdowns and peak-season restocking. With the basis widening and holders still holding offers against traders scooping up cheaper metal, the near term points to high-level consolidation, pullbacks without a deep break.
