On September 14, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for October delivery dropped by 0.64% by the end of Monday's daytime trading and decreased by 0.06% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 23,990/tonne as of 1 a.m. Tuesday, September 15, 2026.
The continued slide in aluminum prices essentially reflects a moment where the US high-rate pricing is temporarily overpowering Middle East supply-premium pricing. On one side, the 10-year Treasury yield punching back above 5%, with Wall Street nudging year-end forecasts even higher, plus a firmer dollar and a prolonged restrictive-rate regime is draining risk appetite out of commodities: dollar-denominated LME buying gets capped and the broader nonferrous complex de-risks. Even with China's smelting capacity ceiling and still-tight ingot inventories propping up SHFE aluminum, it can't fully shield itself from that macro overhang.
On the other side, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, but the blockade premium was already traded earlier, so funds are choosing to take profits ahead of the FOMC. For now, aluminum is led by the Treasury curve and the dollar: what's being repriced lower is the speculative/financial premium, while low visible inventories provide the fundamental backstop.
On September 14, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,080/tonne, down Yuan 160/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,280/tonne, down Yuan 160/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 23,990/tonne, down Yuan 140/tonne from the previous day.
Fundamentally, China's operating smelting capacity is running close to the policy ceiling, so upside from new capacity is limited. Overseas Middle East output carries Hormuz-related risk, but it has not yet translated into actual curtailments. On the demand side, downstream buyers only restock on price dips, so the market is currently propped up by low inventories and a supply ceiling rather than by strong consumption. As long as rates stop pushing higher, or a genuine Middle East supply shock hits, that physical tightness will quickly reclaim pricing control.
SHFE aluminum edged slightly higher in yesterday's morning session. In Central China, traders' inventories kept drawing down and held near 150,000 tonnes, with the basis continuing to firm, holders were reluctant to sell and spot supply tightened. As prices stayed soft overall, downstream buyers stepped in on dips with modestly improved appetite, and traders came back to scoop up cheap paper, keeping turnover fairly active.
In South China, the basis stayed elevated but cash players were more cautious, restocking mainly on genuine need while end-users kept bidding low; overall trade was just moderate.
Overall, Aluminum is falling on macro weight, not on a fundamentals breakdown. High yields and a strong dollar are flushing out financial bids ahead of the FOMC, while the Hormuz risk gets treated as already priced. China's capacity ceiling and thin ingot stocks are holding the floor, so this is premium getting squeezed off a fundamentally tight market, not a bear turn.
