On September 15, 2026, in the derivatives market, aluminum futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed slight volatility. The most-traded aluminum contract for October delivery increased by 0.46% by the end of Tuesday's daytime trading and rose by 0.46% overnight, closing the nighttime session at Yuan 24,150/tonne as of 1 a.m. Wednesday, September 16, 2026.
Record-high 20-year U.S. Treasury auction yield and the 10-year yield breaking above 5% essentially reflect a synchronized tightening of global long-end discount rates and dollar liquidity expectations: a stronger dollar weighs on dollar-priced LME aluminum demand, higher risk-free rates raise the financing cost of inventory holding and speculative positioning across the value chain, and weaker overseas manufacturing, real estate and emerging-market financing depress expectations for traditional aluminum demand, keeping a lid on prices. But aluminum is not a pure financial asset -- China's capacity ceiling, high molten-aluminum ratio that keeps ingot supply tight, low traders' inventories, rigid PV/grid/new-energy aluminum demand, and elevated overseas energy costs all build a fundamental floor under the market.
On September 15, 2026, Mysteel's daily price assessment showed that the market price for A00 aluminum with a minimum purity of 99.7% in China was Yuan 24,140/tonne, up Yuan 60/tonne from the previous day; in South China Yuan 24,330/tonne, up Yuan 50/tonne from the previous day; and in Central Plains Yuan 24,060/tonne, up Yuan 70/tonne from the previous day.
Fundamentally, geopolitical disruptions have kept the overseas aluminum market in deficit for most of this year. Europe's smelters remain partly idled on the back of persistently high gas and power costs, while new capacity in Indonesia and the Middle East has slipped further behind schedule on execution. Restarts at Middle East smelters are running faster than expected, keeping the forward narrative of a gradual easing in global supply alive. But with the Gulf situation still unresolved and lacking a stable operating environment, any meaningful supply recovery looks unlikely in the near term. Against that, LME visible stocks sit at multi-year lows and SHFE inventories keep drawing -- globally, visible stocks continue to shrink, which keeps a firm floor under prices.
SHFE aluminum drifted lower before firming up through the morning session yesterday. East China traders' inventories drew further, holding around 140,000 tonnes. The basis kept strengthening as holders held offers firm and refused to sell cheap, nearby supply tightened noticeably. With prices bouncing off the lows, downstream kept restocking at a steady pace, and some players took the dip to build inventories; sentiment turned marginally better. Traders re-entered the market, mostly scooping up cheap paper, and overall trading stayed active with decent spot-grade hand-to-mouth buying.
In South China, offers opened flat to the benchmark with only modest volumes done. Through the mid-to-late session, the mainstream remained at parity offers, with discounts still finding decent two-way business. It was the final pricing day for some back-pricing orders, traders lifted metal on the discount to deliver against long-dated contracts, and since the absolute price sat relatively low, end-user factories showed decent willingness to top up on weakness. Still, no bulk restocking yet; overall turnover was fair.
Overall, 10-year Treasury above 5% caps LME aluminum, but SHFE aluminum still posted a modest independent gain on low inventories and firm spot offers. Macro bearish, fundamentals bullish, prices range-bound but biased higher.
